Copper. When China produces better numbers than expected, Copper upticks but it does not stick. He does not see a big demand pull from them in the next couple of years. Investing in hard goods is something China will probably do for 20 years. Copper stocks probably won’t take off in a big way, though.
Markets. 6 months ago he wanted to see more carnage in the gold sector. He thinks we have seen it, but it is not going to be a ‘v’ shaped bottom. We have 18 months to bottom. The decline we saw from $1900 was natural. Thinks we are in an upward channel. There is an increasing interest by sophisticated investors in the mining sector.
Chris Jones appeared live to comment. URRE is ready to produce but is waiting for the Uranium price to exceed $40. Larry says he likes ETFs for diversification. NLR-N is a diversified ETF that holds this one. URA is mostly the miners and holds it. Prefers the later one. China is constructing 36 new nuclear reactors and 63 are starting globally with 100 on the drawing board. There is a possibility of a restart in Japan in April. URRE-O is fully licensed in Texas and soon will be in Mexico.
Uranium. CCO-T has suggested that the global cost of production is $70 a pound. Sell for $135. Either Uranium goes up to the cost of capital or the lights will go out. It should go up over the next two years. Thinks uranium stocks are ahead of themselves. Long term holds in golds should do fairly well.
Markets. Volatility now is something temporary. Ukraine and Russia are not a large percentage of the world economy. Gas futures are up, oil is up. There are European members against Fracking and so on and now they may decide to change their attitude. This has big implications for Oil, but overall the bigger driver for markets now is China. Some economists have estimated the China housing bubble to be at the same level as Ireland when it popped. State of resource stocks today is dismal. Investors are discouraged. The sector has had the best run this year. Gold in particular and then Healthcare accounted for 60% of the gains in the first two months of this year.
Markets. Markets here are at all time highs. It is surprising when we look at turmoil in south America. It is also surprising in light of the weather in the fourth quarter as well as now. Things have really slowed down because of the weather. Bonds are telling us that equities should be selling off. Equity investors are looking at second, third and fourth quarters of this year. The bond market is telling him that the economy is slowing. Thinks there is some risk in emerging markets. Experts are very concerned about the stress they are seeing in the emerging markets. There is a flattening of interest rates, but treasury bonds will not go lower than where they are today, but should go up to 3.5% by year end.
Markets. Over the last 10 years some claim they can see manipulation in the gold market. There is a spread between demand and inventories. Gold is the only commodity where no one ever looks at inventories, but it is at an all time low. This disconnect has to correct because that is how market forces work. His main theme is that we are going back to the 70s with stagflation and a lack of growth. Precious metals are the insurance against the actions of the central bankers. The markets are running up, but it could be because money is coming out of the bond market. There are opportunities and he is looking for them.
Markets. Not sure the bottom is in for the mining area. Longer term, bottoms are forming. JX-T is the TSX venture exchange ETF. Uranium at $35 means there is a lot of production that just can’t come out of the ground. Right now the driver is not currency, but geopolitical risk. China is going to grow because they are going to grow, but it will be less than in the past. Demand for commodities will not be what it used to be.