Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTABMO Junior Gold Index ETFZJG.TOWEAK BUYApr 03, 2017

Junior gold miners. It is not linked to gold. They go up and down relative to the price of gold, but many don’t have production. He thinks gold is going to break out and will pop to $1350. It should retest last year’s highs. Junior gold stocks should test highs also. He does not like the speculative names.

$9.04

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$248.80

As of May 29, 2026. Market Open.

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WEAK BUY
Junior gold companies.

With gold prices where they are now compared to where they were only a few years ago, we're nearly double. If you can't make money today, you'll almost never make money. If you're looking at gold juniors now, and they're not profitable at this level of gold, then avoid them.

ZJG is a basket of junior gold miners. You'll get some diversification and most stocks have been around for a long time, so this is the way to go. He hates the idea of buying new, speculative gold with their "new thing" that they're pushing. 90% of those will never make it, so you'll lose your money more often than not.

DON'T BUY
Everyone talks about gold as being a hedge against inflation, but it's not, and hasn't been for quite some time. He doesn't own any gold. Doesn't earn interest. Performance has been lacklustre. Most gold bugs tend to be in the hysterical conspiracy realm. Not an investible asset.
COMMENT
Junior golds broke out. He thinks the US$ is doing a slow roll. There is going to be resistance around $73 that it will have to chew through.
DON'T BUY
Not too thrilled with the sector as long as the USD is strong. July through October, gold usually strengthens. Could do a sector play. Pretty high risk play and wouldn't personally do it.
SELL
More volatile than standard gold indexes. Done well on the year. Opportunity to sell. He has a negative bias toward gold in general, even in good markets, based on his past experiences. There's been some technical selling. Big resistance at $54. Be very cautious.
DON'T BUY
They did a reverse split because they got down to a very low level. This is pretty normal.
HOLD

Juniors are pricing in gold at $1500. They have had a tremendous run already. They may lose momentum for a week or two, relative to the price of gold, and when that happens you should tighten up your stop.

PARTIAL SELL

Gold could go up if we go into a difficult market. He would consider selling it, however. He would scale out of it rather than buying more.

DON'T BUY

This is about the only one on the juniors. He is not a gold bug. If you like Junior golds, this is as good as it gets.

SELL

When gold was testing $1050 he would say yes, but we have had the strongest rally in gold in several years. He thinks we will peak out at $1300 this cycle.

WATCH

This is junior golds. Sometimes they operate differently than seniors. There seems to be support about $4.80. You are getting some declining peaks. He would want the most recent one taken out before considering it.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Sep 26/14, Down 33.09%) He will stick with it. Don’t average down. If you get a turn, then you can start to add on again. He would give it another few weeks to see if this is real.

DON'T BUY

Typically Gold does well from July into October. In May and June you get the weakest months of the year. Pushing off interest rate announcements affects gold also. Juniors have more leverage so it is a higher risk trade.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 16/14. Up 0.43%.) This is now starting to outperform and we are in the early stages. It is still too early, but we are just beginning and it still has more to go. If you own, stay with it.