Opinions
John Hood
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLK-N
COMMENT
Dec 27, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The tech sector is trading at 28x forward PE, back to the pre-Covid peak. Tech trades at a 45% premium to the overall market while the 10-year average is 9% premium. During the tech bubble it was a 53% premium. He gets the AI enthusiasm, but doesn't understand the tech disconnect from higher rates. The Fed has said it will increase rates. Tech stocks are expensive. Tech outflows have been the highest in the past 10 weeks. We'll test 4,200 on the S&P and could run further if it breaks above that. If it doesn't, we'll see.
Sector is performing well. Small pullback from October to November, which is good as it sets up a rally. Tech starts to perform well at this time of year into January, seeing some momentum, can do well for the next few months. Rising bottoms, a very positive pattern. Breaking out from the previous level. That all shows an ascending triangle.
This week, the market nearly broke below all key support levels, including the XLK (tech index). It looks very negative now, showing a sell signal. Inskip fears XLK could fall to $225, the next floor of support and the 26-week moving average. Bearish.
QQQ-Q vs XLK-N QQQ is NASDAQ, XLK is technology. You’re going to find a lot of overlap. One thing with QQQ is BMO has the Canadian Dollar edged version, the ZQQ-T. Take a look at the website of the ETFs companies and see what weightings are and pick the one you want. Both are excellent. QQQ has some Bio stocks and a whole bunch of other stuff. For a straight technology play he would choose XLK. If you want more diversification go with QQQ.