Opinions Brian Madden
TMX GroupX.TOTOP PICKFeb 27, 2026
Brian MaddenStock price when the opinion was issued
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It owns the Montreal exchange, other trading platforms and the software that supports them. It has a unique position in the financial industry. He considers it not a trading platform but a toll road. It made a recent acquisition of CBOE Canada and Australia. CBOE Canada is the only alternative trading platform not owned by TMX. The TSX and Venture own nearly 50 % of all mining listings in the world and the second largest is Australia. Together they are a mining powerhouse. It has been around since its IPO in 2003 at $3.50. Buy 6 Hold 2 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $63.07)
Richard FoglerThe basis of this company is, essentially, trading volumes. Increased trading volumes in March, up 33%. Heavy trading, lots of volatility, VIX over 30. Steady gainer over time. Also makes $$ off listings. Will probably use AI to its benefit.
Stock's grown by roughly 10% clip over last 10-20 years. If you own, definitely continue to hold.
He owns CME instead due to the bigger market there.
Simple business, often overlooked by investors. Compounded really nicely. Core operations of operating the exchanges are like a toll road. Benefits from increased volumes. During volatility, benefits from derivatives volumes increasing.
The real story is in data analytics -- creating unique, niche benchmarks for ETF issuers and collecting index licensing fees. The company’s fastest-growing segment. Margin expansion. Yield is 1.89%.
The question was how will AI affect it. His answer was that AI should help it but only incrementally and not profoundly, and won't make major changes in its EPS profile. The quality is there but there is uncertainty in the capital markets. It is below its 200 day moving average so technically he wouldn't buy it.
Tollbooth for Canadian capital markets. Valuation now more reasonable. Not cheap, but risk/reward is improving. Owns, and on her watchlist to add on further weakness. Record results reinforce conviction in the name.
Raised dividend, restarted share buybacks. Upside potential of 22% to target from here.
Brianne GardnerResults last week were very good, dividend increased. Not particularly exposed to a downturn in IPOs or equity issuance, but it's nice gravy when it does have a good quarter on those. Under pressure because one segment touches on software -- but the proprietary nature of data and strong network mean they're insulated from AI disruption.
Pullback is compelling opportunity for new investors.
Runs TSX and other trading platforms. Revenue not just from trading, but also from data analytics (42% of total revenue and growing double digits). Recent pullback (due to slowdown in new listings) hitting nice support level. Not a bad time to add. Derivatives trading delivered strong 27% growth YOY. Ranks 9/10, sees just over 25% upside from here.
Healthy balance sheet. Dividend is reliable. Yield is 1.74%.
Brianne GardnerWithin the sector, all of the exchanges have been backing off over the last 3 months. He came out of this name partway through July. Below 200-day MA, and all MAs are moving lower. 70% of S&P companies have performed better over last 12 months. Laggard. Better opportunities.
We would be comfortable buying X today.
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X has fallen from $58 to $54 over the past month, but it is still up 22% year-to-date and 25% on a one-year basis. Despite the recent negative price action, we view its overall trend as still very much intact, and we think this type of consolidation is healthy. It trades at 26X forward earnings, and we are not concerned by this recent move. We would be comfortable slowly averaging in here, or adding a new position.
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Slogan for good stock candidates: "The longer the base, the better the case." This chart had a big base for several years. Then it broke out, and look what happened. You can see this over and over again in stocks.
Moved into an uptrend, arced off aggressively. Now pulling back from being overbought, will likely retrace to somewhere near the trendline which is probably somewhere near the 200-day MA (don't expect it to hit exactly). Not a disaster at all. On the chart from Feb-April of this year, those previous buyers may sell if it breaks that level of ~$51-52. Keep an eye on that.
Known as owner/operator of TSX. But through a string of acquisitions over 20 years, now a multi-segment business -- trading and clearing markets for equities, fixed income, and derivatives. Large and growing insights and analytics, with recurring revenue from fee-based subscriptions -- leading to higher margins and ROIC.
(Analysts’ price target is $61.43)Over last decade, 11% compound growth rate of dividends and 23% compound growth rate in total shareholder return. Pullback predicated on fears of AI disruption, but that risk is overdone. Yield is 2.04%.