Stockchase Opinions

Richard CroftCBOE Volatility IndexVIX-ICOMMENTNov 09, 2018

This is why people find options are confusing. Stocks deal with total return. Volatility is risk, and that’s the options world. Predicting the volatility is as important as predicting earnings. The VIX hasn’t risen dramatically recently, even though it’s around 20%.
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COMMENT

There is a floor to the VIX where people expect a stock to be. He looks at it as investors feeding into a greed and fear Index. There are a lot of ways to hedge including the VIX. It helps to solidify that markets are selling off. When it goes above 25 or 30 you want to really look at your positions and be taking some profits. When the market bottoms the VIX will be spiking.

COMMENT

At his firm, they actually trade the underlying futures contracts as opposed to using the ETF. There are a number of ETFs to go net-long, go net-short, and to leverage on those plays. He can't recommend one, because he doesn't use them.

When you're using the leveraged ones, there's lots of potential adrenaline. They should only be used for very, very short-term views, days to weeks at the most. Never want to hold any leveraged ETFs beyond a few months because of the way they rebalance (buy high and sell low).

BUY

Put this on your list. All the exchanges are trading well.

SELL

It's another indicator that tells us about nervousness by sensing volatility. If you own the VIX, this is probably a really good time to sell. It's right at the peak that we saw last August.

It's a background thing, not a way to perfect timing. Tells you the neighbourhood you're in, but doesn't tell you what to do. You can look at these moves in terms of standard deviations, and how far away from the average we are. Moves of 2 or 3 don't sound big, but they're actually quite big in terms of deviation from the average.

RISKY
The VIX.

It is a great hedge against the market dropping. But your precision on trading vehicles that have forward-based pricing (like futures contracts), means you have to be a rocket scientist to understand how volatility works in order to use them effectively.

COMMENT
From day to day, it will be very choppy. Volatility is telling him we are in a bear market. Not down 20% yet, but over the next 6 months, we will see the US stock market below 20% its peak. Canadian market is a different situation with exposure to energy and commodities. Won't see such a large correction. However, TSX didn't get as much of the upside.
DON'T BUY
Need to be a rocket scientist to be able to effectively use volatility ETFs to profit and hedge in a portfolio. Good for short term trading but it is terrible for long term holds. The timing needs to be perfect.
DON'T BUY
Momentum is strong with low rates. If markets continue to drift higher, the VIX will stay dead. Investors are waiting for volatility.
COMMENT
It's not for everybody. There's a risk that volatility will spike. He's been playing the VXX in the US, a volatility ETF. You have to keep an eye on it. You protect the upside by holding something that does better in a down market.
DON'T BUY
Could this be a good strategy to hedge with out selling and triggering capital gains? These are more like day trading instruments. They are built based off a future strategy. they lose value the longer you hold them. The safest move is to own cash as a hedge.
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Correction with the trade war. How to hedge investments at this time. This is way too difficult to answer in 30 seconds.

COMMENT

Putting a butterfly spread on the VIX? This spread is sometimes called the Iron Condor, and you are putting the spread on in 4 different ways. Unless you are a very, very sophisticated option trader, you might as well set your money on fire and throw it in the air. You are going to be eaten alive by the market makers.

COMMENT

For calls on the VIX. What ETF would you use and with what Strike Price and Call Price? There is an exchange traded note, very similar to an exchange traded fund, that is put out by Barclays iShares (VXX-N) that tracks the VIX. The challenge is that it is tracking short term VIX futures, which has been a steady downward turn on the underlying security. The reason is that you are constantly rebalancing the ETN every day based on the 1st and 2nd futures contracts on VIX, which is giving you a drag every day. This is not a long-term hold. It is a security you buy as a hedge against your portfolio. When VIX spikes, it moves 3% to 6% every single day. VXX is a very volatile instrument and a short-term one. Volatility, as an asset class, is about 6X more volatile than equities. That means you don’t need very much of this product to hedge an equity portfolio.

DON'T BUY

A compilation of the S&P 100 on the prices of front contract Calls and Puts. When market participants expect higher volatility, they are willing to pay more for the Puts. The stock market is majority natural Long, so when market participants are bullish, they are unlikely to be more for the Call. The index usually goes up when the price of Puts goes up, i.e. when people are getting nervous. It is only “implied” volatility. He wouldn’t hold this for longer than a few months, because you get eroded by the transaction costs and the rebalancing.