Opinions
Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI
CBOE Volatility Index
VIX-I
COMMENT
May 26, 2014
$11.360
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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COMMENT
From day to day, it will be very choppy. Volatility is telling him we are in a bear market. Not down 20% yet, but over the next 6 months, we will see the US stock market below 20% its peak. Canadian market is a different situation with exposure to energy and commodities. Won't see such a large correction. However, TSX didn't get as much of the upside.
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SELL
It's another indicator that tells us about nervousness by sensing volatility. If you own the VIX, this is probably a really good time to sell. It's right at the peak that we saw last August.
It's a background thing, not a way to perfect timing. Tells you the neighbourhood you're in, but doesn't tell you what to do. You can look at these moves in terms of standard deviations, and how far away from the average we are. Moves of 2 or 3 don't sound big, but they're actually quite big in terms of deviation from the average.
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This is down at some historical levels. We are within a breadth of that level we had seen in 2007 where it had exploded. Whether it is an investment for you or an indicator, it is a fast twitch. Graph shows it just broke down through the band a little bit to $11.36. If you go back 6-7 years, it’s very close to the $11.08 back in 2007. To invest in it, it has been a decaying instrument. He would make much of this until it got about $15.