Visa Inc.VBUY ON WEAKNESSMar 02, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 04, 2026. Market Open.
Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs. Visa's layoff of 7% of workforce is good for the stock. Probably AI is making Visa more productive.
Mastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
Both are phenomenal businesses. Comparable on valuation and share price performance. If you own one, don't switch.
His clients own Visa, and have for a very long time. Makes the most sense for him as more payments become digitized and V captures more market share. It's the largest payment network, so its profitability is a bit higher on margins. Bit north of 20x PE, FCF yield north of 4%. Attractive valuation for an essential business.
Consumer discretionary tends to do well between October and May. But you tend to have a really good period of retail spending now into the spring. Everyone is buying big ticket items whether it is cars or home appliances, or even doing renovations on homes. This should be a beneficiary. RSI just moved below $70 today. It has been hovering above $70 for the past couple of weeks. $70 is a significantly overbought level. We are seeing these soft sell signals according to momentum indicators, and there should be a pullback along with the broad market and there should be a period of consolidation. The graph shows a bit of a rising trend channel, which it broke out of. The previous level of resistance of about $84 should now act as support, where you should try to pick it up.