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David Goodman Timberwest Forest TWF.UN-T TOP PICK Oct 02, 2000

10% per year dividends. Prices down now because of timber prices

David Goodman

Unknown

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$11.000

Stock price when the opinion was issued

west coast forestry

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HOLD

Held up remarkably well through the trust problems. 2 plays to this one, 1) the trees and 2) land. Expect the perceived value of the real estate has held it up. Probably a decent thing to own over the medium-term. 7.5% yield.

HOLD

Has a lot of excess real estate. They've been funding their distribution by selling excess real estate. Not a concern in the short term. A lot of their logs go into US housing.

HOLD

Own real estate on Vancouver Island that can be sold to developers. 5.8% yield. Not affected by the softwood lumber agreement.

DON'T BUY

Almost fully out of this one. Likes the asset and the capital structure, but too expensive. Would like it at $13.50.

DON'T BUY

Expensive based on existing earnings. Needs to be taken out. If it doesn't, it just has to go down. Good assets.

DON'T BUY

Forest products Very cautious on it.

COMMENT

Balance sheet issue but great asset base. Customers are domestically US housing and specialty grades for Japan, which is in recession. Looks like a cyclical trough for this asset. If there’s enough bad news, it’s the kind of asset he would come back to.

BUY

Forest product companies seem to have come alive again in the last couple of years. A number of large pension companies have been buying timber assets. Longer-term it is a good area to have exposure to. Looks a little expensive but if your view is long-term it could be a good place to be.

COMMENT

Offer to acquire has been made but doesn’t think the bid was high enough. Hope that there will be further bids. Forest product industry has been flat on it back for awhile but has slimmed down and got good new equipment. Industry has come back to life. This company’s big upside is their real estate properties, which is worth a lot more than their trees.

BUY

Own 10% of Vancouver Island. There is a takeover bid from a couple of pension funds. Got sideswiped today when a B.C. First Nations group’s press release made it look like they had filed a court injunction but it was actually with a non-judicial body.

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David Goodman Timberwest Forest TWF.UN-T TOP PICK Oct 02, 2000

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