Tamarack Valley EnergyTVE.TOPAST TOP PICKDec 10, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 23, 2026. Market Open.
(Note: Doesn't own, but he does own HWX and likes the upcoming merger.)
In oil sands, but not one of the major players. Merger consolidates 2 names in the region, should see a lot of cost savings. Merged entity will be a bigger player, grabbing more institutional attention. You can play the merger through either company.
Using water-flood technology to pick up production. Great growth, expecting 15% production growth in the next 6 months. Generates lots of cash. Recently increased dividend by 25%, increasing share buybacks.
International investors are coming back to Canada for energy. Foresees multiple expansion as well as pricing power. Yield is 1.19%.
Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile. He expects oil to return to the $70s, but it will take time to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
Really well run. Successfully pivoted away from mature assets with limited running room. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater. At the bleeding edge of using water flooding, phenomenal results. Expects a good report on year-end reserves (company expects at least 25 years of running room in this play). Continued success should bring multiple expansion. Sees 50-ish% upside from here with $60-70 oil over next 1-2 years.
A significantly cheaper alternative to HWX. Equally good management and properties, with same amount of running room and perhaps even more delineated inventory. Core holding for him, doesn't anticipate trimming.
(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 34.11%.) Still has a lot of respect for management. They are still executing the way he thought they would. The price of oil really started to go against them and capital flows moved out of the stock. It broke down from a technical standpoint, so he sold his holdings. He continues to like it and is still on his radar screen. They are seeing some significant cost reductions happening in their facilities, but also in their drilling costs, which will bring down their production costs. This means that their netbacks, even with the price of oil dropping, are still going to remain fairly high. There is also a pretty good chance that they might sell some of their facilities to give them extra capital, as opposed to having to go to the market.