Bruce Campbell (2)The Stars Group IncTSGI.TOWATCHDec 09, 2015
Now that they have had a poor quarter, what you are going to need is for them to have a strong quarter. A lot of people bought the stock at higher prices after the Poker Stars acquisition; and is probably being hit with tax loss selling. You need to see is some sort of stability with the stock price after the tax loss selling. The 2nd thing will be when they come out with their next set of quarterly results, and if numbers have improved and are moving back in the right direction. At that point, you will probably start to see the share price returning back to a growth profile. An interesting business with a huge market out there. They are trying to transition their business from straight poker into more casino and sports book, and it is going to be a challenge over the next few years as to how they maintain the poker business, especially with the regulatory environment, and at the same time transition into that casino and sports book business. Wait and see the numbers, and if they look to be ramping up again, that will probably be a good entry point.
(A Top Pick May 29/19, Up 66%) He sold out previously. He liked the 5 year forecast. As we came into late last year some of the volatility in the stock was not what he was interested in so he exited. He believes they will be stronger going forward.
(A Top Pick Feb 25/19, Up 52%) It was a rollercoaster. He exited in November on news of the acquisition. It's a speculative stock. He still likes the outlook for this industry though.
The outlook for online gaming is very positive. They are doing the merger with Flutter out of the UK and will add scale to the company. In five years you will see in-game betting like you have in the UK. The NFL would be a monster business.
GC-T vs. TSGI-T. They trade at significantly different multiples: 20 times vs. 10 times. TSGI-T has a bigger international perspective, but has more competition. He would prefer TSGI-T if they get their merger done.
He has liked it from back in the old days. They made a big acquisition about two year ago that gave them a big footprint in the gaming space. They are merging with Flutter Entertainment in the UK. They will be a powerhouse in the gaming space in Europe. There is deal risk. You may want to sit n the sidelines if you don’t own it or hold on until the final deal price narrows a bit.
A speculative play. It's a bet on their growth prospects. The stock didn't do well until the takeover move. There hasn't been much movement after that takeover announcement. Take profits.
(A Top Pick Nov 15/18, Up 21%) He's starting to exit it after the merger deal was announced. It's a speculative stock. Some may not buy this because it is in the gambling space and that will hurt the stock. A good time to take some profits.
It is trading at a pretty sizeable discount to the price with which Flutter is trying to take them out at. It makes sense to try to put these two together. You are dealing with uncertainty about M&A and regulatory issues.
A gambling stock including poker. The upside potential is 92%, says his model. Shareholders seem to have become frustrated they have not signed more deals with the various US states. If they can get things signed, it has great potential as it trades at a discount to book value.
(A Top Pick May 29/19, Down 8%) He recently added to this. It's a five-year play on the gambling sector that's supposed to grow 20% a year. TSGI has positioned itself well, but investor appetizer is not there right now, hence the pullback in May.
(A Top Pick Sep 13/18, Down 32%) They went out and bought another company and took on a lot of debt which concerns the market. He expects them to aggressively pay down their debt. They signed deals with companies like FOX and the market doesn’t care.
Fox Bet partnering? Hi model price is $28.75. He would trade it here, now that it found support at $20.42. An ever changing regulatory environment, so not a long term hold.
It's close to 52-week lows, but they executed deals last year to be one of the biggest online gambling companies in the world. A fear with TSGI is them loading up on debt to make all these acqusitions. It will take time to pay that off. They've partnered with Fox, which bodes well. It's risky and demands patience.
Looking at the past 5 years, earnings and FMV haven't gone anywhere. They have lots of things on the go. Good upside potential, good balance sheet, reasonably cheap, but give me some excitement. If online gambling gets passed in the states, maybe something will get going. Needs a catalyst.
Now that they have had a poor quarter, what you are going to need is for them to have a strong quarter. A lot of people bought the stock at higher prices after the Poker Stars acquisition; and is probably being hit with tax loss selling. You need to see is some sort of stability with the stock price after the tax loss selling. The 2nd thing will be when they come out with their next set of quarterly results, and if numbers have improved and are moving back in the right direction. At that point, you will probably start to see the share price returning back to a growth profile. An interesting business with a huge market out there. They are trying to transition their business from straight poker into more casino and sports book, and it is going to be a challenge over the next few years as to how they maintain the poker business, especially with the regulatory environment, and at the same time transition into that casino and sports book business. Wait and see the numbers, and if they look to be ramping up again, that will probably be a good entry point.