Opinions
Mason Granger
Tourmaline Oil Corp
TOU-T
SELL
Dec 06, 2016
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Good time to buy. He bought in last month or so. Very good operator. Secret sauce is that it has the best drilling inventory, many decades worth. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, about 13-14%. Owns much of its own infrastructure, which gives them operational flexibility. Smart about diversifying away from a single access point for delivery. Shareholder friendly. Importantly, CEO is a very large shareholder.
Being affected by volatility in energy prices. Not a large company like a SU or CNQ that can weather the storm. He owns it more as a speculative play. OK as a 1-2% position maximum as long as you have a diversified portfolio. No fundamental issues, still thinks poised for growth long term. Needs to continue ramping up production.
Quality name. Largest player in nat gas in Canada, with the largest reserves and the lowest cost. Top of the environmental sustainability ratings. We just built a big gas export terminal. Natural gas will power AI for at least 10 years until nuclear can get more established. Outlook for gas is strong. Lots of gas around, so pricing may not be that good but volumes will increase nicely. Yield is 3.44%.
(Analysts’ price target is $75.00)One of his basic tenets is that if a stock isn't behaving the way you think it should based on what you think you know, then assume you might be missing something. You need discipline around selling a position. He wants to own the leading companies fundamentally and technically.
We are in a seasonally weak period for gas; wait for that to firm up before putting $$ to work. In early spring he was 12% energy, now down to 6%. TOU trading better than only 19% of companies in the S&P, relatively weak. Breadth in energy sector has been weak. Will turn around at some point, but can't say when.
A few of her clients own it. It follows the seasonal momentum in oil and gas which means it is subject to commodity price volatility. It is Canada's largest natural gas producer, has strong free cash flow and low debt. It is oversold and should be OK for a value play but she prefers CNQ instead.
One of the premier natural gas producers. They have an excellent cost structure and a pretty good balance sheet. Recently did a pretty big acquisition from Shell. His issue is that the company is bumping up against 200,000 barrels a day. If you pick a decline rate, which he would imagine would be close to 40%, the company basically has to replace 80,000 barrels every year, either organically or through acquisitions. That becomes harder and harder for a company this size.