Opinions
Christine Poole
Thermo Fisher Scientific
TMO-N
PAST TOP PICK
Oct 21, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Benefitted from Covid, but afterwards there was too much inventory. But the PE fell from 30x to 20x, and is exiting the excess and entering a long cycle. Will grow earning 10-15% including by acquisition. Healthcare/pharma/biotech he expects will grow.
Touches all aspects of bio-pharma industry. For example, helps run pharmaceutical trials, and helps build and design new drugs. Everything you need, such as electron microscopes, to create new drugs and products.
Weak coming out of Covid, as there was too much inventory in the system. Now primed to see revenue growth reaccelerate. Last time, Trump was favourable to healthcare and biotech. Low multiple relative to its historical average. Yield is 0.3%.
The merger doesn't take effect until Jan. 1; she see few changes after the merger. Price has disappointed post-Covid, given inventory and interest rate hurdles. With rates falling, she expected health care to resume, but she thinks that spend is delayed. The stimulus in China will help. With the new US president, we also don't know what will happen to this sector. But she likes TMO's fundamentals, and would buy at these levels.
Has longed liked this and it's long been a good performer, but it has struggled since peaking in end-2021 and pulled back in 2022, and sideways ever since. TMO benefitted in 2020-1 as drug companies spent a fortune dealing with Covid and needed TMO's medical machines. From Oct. 2023 to Sept. 2024, shares rose 51%, but is down 18% since then. But they last reported a mixed quarter: a slight miss in revenue though a slight beat in earnings and soft guidance. It sold off and hasn't stopped, though announcing a $4 billion share buyback last month helped. He expects a graudal improvement as business picks up int he next two years. Trades at only 22x PE 2025 vs. 30x historically, so it's cheap now.
2023 and 2024 were challenged due to overhang with inventory. Will benefit from talk of deregulation of healthcare in the US. In spite of flat pricing for products, dividends still grow between 11-20%. Defensive, high-quality name, sleep at night, just let it ride. Yield is 0.3%.
(Analysts’ price target is $643.86)
All the tools and services that the healthcare industry needs, so you get diversity with just the one stock. Very well managed. Long-term growth targets are 7-9%. Always improves margins. China is about 8% of revenues, a bit weaker. Biotech funding dried up with higher rates. Inventory destocking. Hopefully, those 3 factors are behind them.