Stockchase Opinions

Michael Simpson, CFA Trimac Transportation TMA-T COMMENT Jan 16, 2009

Trucking with 60% of revenues coming from Western Canada. Big player in bulk trucking. Valuation has come down a great deal because of concerns on the economy. At these levels, maybe privatized. Distribution is fairly safe.
$3.110

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation & Environmental Services
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WAIT
Last quarterly results were disappointing, margins were down. A lot of that can be directed at fuel costs.
WEAK BUY
Has been severely punished by the market because of the results that were weaker than expected. They operate in two divisions, western Canada which is quite strong and eastern Canada which is weaker. At these levels, it's becoming more interesting.
SELL
In this situation, you would only want to be in the strongest names. If Thornburg survives it's half a miracle anyway.
DON'T BUY
They own a portfolio of mortgages. They manufacture mortgages. Not a buy. Do not buy any American mortgage REIT’s at this time.
BUY
Outlook for recovery is very good. This is one of the dominant truckers in the bulk business. Well capitalized and management owns a ton of stock. Very well run. 13% distribution, which is fully funded out of cash flow.
COMMENT

Basically a trucker in the oil patch. Good stable company. Fairly well-managed. Too small for his portfolio.

TOP PICK

11 or 12 times earnings and growth rate in the past was 50%. Will benefit from better oil prices. Business good. Lots of repeat business. 50% owned by management. Dividend is 4% with room to raise it. Could be an acquisition candidate.

DON'T BUY

Chart shows the stock has done very well this year, but has broken its up trend line, so you have to be a little bit careful. We see a lot of the transportation sector do well in the last year or so, but the drop is a little bit of a negative sign. We are not in the seasonal period for the transportation sector. Obviously lower oil prices help that. He would be really interested at around $5.75-$6.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 27/14. Down 22.36%.) He was under the impression that the Canadian economy was going to be fine and oil prices were going to be low. Also, following the Constrans takeover he thought there would be much more interest in the company. Unfortunately, the Canadian economy rolled over a little bit, and as a trucker, you can’t avoid being hit by the economy. It has a decent dividend and a great valuation, but he does not have it in any of his model portfolios.