Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Target Corp TGT-N PAST TOP PICK Aug 02, 2024

Delivered an amazing quarter last week after a brutal 2 years (-62%) suffering problems like too much inventory post-Covid and theft. The new CEO led the company on a rally from last October through April, but the company issued an an earnings miss in May and issued weak guidance for the next quarter. Shares plunged from a skeptical street. But shares jumped 10% last week after reporting. Target is back! They delivered 2% same-store sales growth, a beat, and the first quarter of positive comps since end-2022, even with lower comps. Also, digital sales are up and higher general traffic. They beat earnings and operating margins though lowered slightly their earnings forecast. Reasons for success: controlling theft, launching a successful loyalty program and cutting prices on 5,000 items.

Added about 1.5 years ago based on quality name that had been priced at a discount (post Covid-19 sell off). Since then, has sold shares. Believes share price is fully valued. Would invest more if share price fell. 

Seasonally, retail tends to do well from late-October to November, and the sector did do well. But TGT didn't, not a good sign. Underperforming. Retail is also strong from late-January to mid-April.

He expects an activist to step in, but they do food and places with scale, like Walmart and Amazon, do it better.

Trades at 10x PE and pays a 4.75% dividend yield. Has fallen and is now cheap historically.

Has been a problem child for a while and not worth the headache; there are better retailers. TGT faces a weaker consumer.

It caters to higher-income consumers than Walmart. She's long-term and patient. 

They report Wednesday. It has been a victim of poor luck and protests. Pays a 4.5% yield. He fears that TGT reports an okay quarter but withholds guidance.

Will hold it, is down 40% the past year. Not happy. The stock is hard to defend. Traffic is down. But she still sees value in the brand. They need to reduce their product from 62% discretionary to 50%. She likes their restructuring.