Stock price when the opinion was issued
Applauds decision to reverse course on moving to US. Pretty weak Q4, drawdown of 40%. Since 2000, stock's generated total return of 16,000%, so pullbacks are buyable. Management capable of addressing and resolving problems. Good consolidator of fragmented industry. Now trading at 14x PE, discount to its 5-year average of 16x. Incredible entry point. Yield is 2%.
(Analysts’ price target is $184.44)Q4 was a stinker, guidance was very tough. Tariff worries are weighing on capex spending of many of its customers. If tariffs are implemented, could still take another hit.
Stock's fallen way too much, he can't believe it's still going down. Trading at very deep discount to normalized earnings. Screaming buy, but you have to look through the next few quarters of uncertainty.
We would not see a rush, but we would be OK buying a partial position (1/5th or so) into any further weakness. It may take a while for things to recover. We think over three years it will be higher, but the short term outlook is much harder to call.
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Last 2 quarters have not been good. EPS is the worst it's been since 2021. Tariff uncertainty, and company's saying it's not doing any M&A this year (but that's one of its embedded catalysts for growth). Earnings down 17-30% for 2025. FCF was up 40%. Management's seeing some accretion from recent acquisition.
All this negative news was said yesterday, and the stock had a great rally. Often a sign that sellers are washed out. But for that thesis to be correct, we need to avoid a darker economic outcome. Very cyclical. Sees 20% growth in 2026-2028, assuming there's a rebound.
Cheap enough at 11x 2026. On days like today, yes, he'd sell puts with a $90-95 or so strike. Know that growth stocks can go down a lot in dark economic times. This stock is going to go back to former highs and beat them, and you want to be there for that.
They operate in the US and Canada, but don't ship a lot across the border. But it's projected that there will be 60% fewer Chinese goods reaching the LA port in a few weeks, so this will be a real lull in shipping. If you can wait for a possible long period of slower shipping, this is not a bad place to invest. But this could be a bit of a wait. He is holding his shares.
Large player. Significant operations in US. One of the only large caps he owns in his fund. Great compounder at over 20% a year. Fantastic acquisitions. CEO excellent at allocating capital. Good growth and liquidity.