Christopher Blumas TFI International Inc TFII-T DON'T BUY Sep 17, 2019

Share prices have held up very well over 5 years, not reflecting a feared shipping recession. More upside as this recovers, though less than TD.

There could be freight recession and the trucking market could turn around. TFI's price has held up very well in a 5 year chart. If looking for recovery potential TD has more potential than TFI.

70% of revenue base is located outside Canada, so makes some sense. As well, once you become a US company you're no longer subject to Trump's tariffs. Not great for corporate Canada.

Just had significant miss in the segment that's 40% of its business. Q4 was way worse than feared. Overreaction to downside. Thinks earnings have likely bottomed, as he thinks tariffs won't happen. Looks really good at 11x 2026 earnings, with 18% EPS growth rate for 2025-2027 -- really nice PEG ratio. At 8.3x, cheaper than peers.

The proposed, and then reversed, move to the US is just noise. Good growth stock, buy when weak but not if we're going into a recession. He's more inclined to buy now than to wait for Tariff Tuesday next week.

Applauds decision to reverse course on moving to US. Pretty weak Q4, drawdown of 40%. Since 2000, stock's generated total return of 16,000%, so pullbacks are buyable. Management capable of addressing and resolving problems. Good consolidator of fragmented industry. Now trading at 14x PE, discount to its 5-year average of 16x. Incredible entry point. Yield is 2%.

Q4 was a stinker, guidance was very tough. Tariff worries are weighing on capex spending of many of its customers. If tariffs are implemented, could still take another hit.

Stock's fallen way too much, he can't believe it's still going down. Trading at very deep discount to normalized earnings. Screaming buy, but you have to look through the next few quarters of uncertainty.

If we're going into a slowdown, this name is expensive. Balance sheet is OK. FMV is ~$147. Immediate downside target of $100 or so. Don't be in too much of a hurry to get in. A lot of other stocks have more upside potential. 

Added recently on the selloff. Trading at 15x 2025 earnings, so it's cheap. Fundamentals score 10/10. A contrarian value play, about 40% upside from here.

Best of breed. HQ remains in Canada, hearing message loud and clear from shareholders. Tremendous compounder, great serial acquirer. Purchase of UPS less-than-truckload still trying to be integrated to their standard. A good business, buy on sale.

They had an ugly last quarter (shares tanked) in a surprising miss. They tend to have good quarters. They make well-time acquisitions in troubled times, so wait for that to happen again to boost shares. This stock won't do much for the next 6 months.