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Trilogy Energy Corp (TET.TO)

TOP PICK

Liquid rich Nat Gas play. Made the most impressive discovery in Alberta in a very long time. They are taking the cash flow and applying it to another project. You are continuing to see the economics improve as they figure out how to drill these wells. If we are lucky it could be taken out for $45-$60 within the next year.

COMMENT

(Between Husky (HSE-T) or Trilogy (TET-T), which company should be kept?) Of all the medium-sized and higher companies, this one is the most likely to be taken over so he would hold this. It has great oil weighted growth in Western Canada.

BUY

Down because of gas but has really high growth coming.

WEAK BUY

It has been outperforming its peers so technically it is favourable, but don’t go overweight.

BUY

Likes it a lot. Had miss-steps over the last two quarters. Spend a lot of money fixing problems. He likes their profile now and thinks they will report well in their 4th quarter. He has confidence in their company and assets. Lots of growth coming in 2013.

COMMENT

Primarily natural gas producer. With the weakness in natural gas pricing over the past year, it has created pressure on the stock. Has been able to recover from the July lows indicating that perhaps some of the selling pressure has come off. Very good assets. Pretty volatile commodity and he would be careful.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute) Such terrible operations, would add a little at a lower price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 12/11. Up 7.16%.) Thinks it has one of the best land positions in the deep basin. Still producing some very prolific Montney oil wells. Expects to see some continued success drilling over the next couple of months. Still a Buy.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 13/11. Down 20.64%.) Thinks this was the best performing stock in the index in 2011. Sold his holdings in early 2012. Company is over half levered towards natural gas. When the stock collapsed, he bought it back.

BUY
Largest growth upside in this story is primarily among the oil pool (?) and they have a tremendous amount of both Montney and Duvernay liquid rich gas. You have to be aware that liquid rich natural gas has brought on a tremendous amount of liquids and they are oversupplied. Balance sheet is pretty reasonable. Trading at around 7X next year's cash flow using $3.50 gas.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Oct 13/11, Down 31.68%) sold at beginning of year and now is getting back into it.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) This is painted with a natural gas brush. All of the upside is in oil. 90% of the revenue is oil levered. An unbelievable asset base both in Montney and the Duverney shale.
PARTIAL SELL
Fantastic stock with a great portfolio of assets. Moving towards oil right now but still has very large gas position in terms of production. Not expecting earnings momentum and could possibly disappoint the street when they report, which could be more downside. If you own, consider taking some profits and buying back if it drops further.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 13/11. Down 13.95%.) Sold this when he felt the gas market was getting worse. Company had tremendous Montney oil growth but are about 70%-80% weighted to natural gas.
TOP PICK
30% oil. Being hit because it is viewed as a gas stock. Produces a lot of condensate to dilute oil sands oil. Down $13 a share and a great position to own at these points.
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