Stockchase Opinions

Gavin Graham Teck Resources Ltd. (B) TECK.B-T BUY Feb 28, 2023

Has spun out its coal operator, drawing accusations of greenwashing. Had surged 309% over 3 years. Copper and zinc which Teck produces which will important in the green revolution. Is an M&A target. Has big exposure in Chile, a plus.

$54.250

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Mining
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DON'T BUY

Mainly copper and zinc. Incredibly cyclical. In 2011, share price was higher than today. Easier to look for companies that are delivering consistent profit growth over time. Pass on this type of business.

WATCH

Under pressure for a while. Correction today is just going along with the market. If economic slowdown, base metal and commodity prices will suffer. Not a direct 1:1 tariff impact. 

This is a moment that Canada has, as a country, to really take advantage of our position in the global dynamic. We need to show the world that we're open for business. It's not about just reacting to the president of the US, it's about what we want to be as a country when we grow up. If we're supposed to be united, why do we have all these inter-provincial trade barriers? Why do we make it so difficult to bring a mine into production? Right now, we're not an attractive venue to raise capital or to put $$ into the ground to make our wealth of resources available to the world.

BUY

He's so bullish on copper, recently added this to the portfolio.

WATCH

When breadth is weakening, he stops putting new positions on. But he's always building a farm team of things he'd like to own. Long-term view of this name and copper miners is very favourable. Technical chart's not good. Recently when we had a couple of really bad days, the copper stocks really broke. This is what tells him we may be headed for a recession.

Likes it. Dynamite assets. Cashflow will be good. But he needs to see things get better before putting money to work.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They dropped their coal business to become a pure metals play. The company has changed. They're pulled down along with industrials, given tariffs. Now is a buying opportunity. He might add to his holding.

BUY

Likes it. Got hit in April. Market priced in weaker economic growth going forward, tariff confusion, and higher probability of recession. Appetite shift toward precious metals. Pause on copper; for example, EV production will eventually continue, but is on hold. Electrical buildout globally will eventually ramp up again.

A lot of bad news was priced in, analysts are now getting on board. Good play longer term.

WATCH

Doesn't currently own; has been in and out, depending on how he feels about copper. Approximately the 11th largest producer of copper globally, a lot of which is pinned on the QB2 mine (a year behind, struggling to get up to full speed). But it will double copper production by 2027. Once that mine is steadier, probably looking at more share buybacks which is good for organic ROIC for shareholders.

Trades at a discount. Thinks he'll be back in very soon. He likes where copper is, even with the uncertainty around China. Q3 is probably when we'll start to see some really good momentum in the stock.

WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

WEAK BUY

He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

TOP PICK

Great business, really cleaned up balance sheet by selling coal division. Now pure-play copper. Holds $4.8B in cash, returning a ton to shareholders. Stock's been hit last couple of weeks by mine expansion ($2.4B) near Kamloops, which will extend life of the mine to 2046. Pretty low valuation. Yield is 1.11%.

He's looking at the $42 put out to September. You get paid $1, which gives you 2.5% and a bit of downside protection. 

(Analysts’ price target is $43.02)