Stockchase Opinions

Andy Nasr Toronto Dominion TD-T BUY ON WEAKNESS Nov 29, 2017

This bank gives you a huge deposit base in the US. They have an under leveraged deposit base, so they can issue a lot more loans. However, there are still household debt concerns. This would show up through slower loan growth, which probably weighs on earnings growth. He would try to get this on a pullback. Dividend yield of 3.2%.

$75.050

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY
TD vs. BAC

Likes TD a lot. Very undervalued at 10x PE. Potential for multiple to rerate in medium term. More upside as it distances itself from the overhang of regulatory infractions. All that should give you a better total return. He'd pick TD.

For BAC, even with deregulation in US, the big banks are already so large, it's hard to imagine they'd be allowed to get even bigger.

BUY

Asset cap in US will be in place for a number of years; once it's eventually lifted, that will be an avenue for growth. US accounts for about 25-30% of earnings. Bank feels it can still grow in Canada. Valuation still quite attractive at 10x PE. Path back to growth will take a while. Yield is quite attractive too.

DON'T BUY

Q1 was a much-needed low-drama quarter. Schwab sale. Market appreciated the quicker CEO transition. Wealth management good, strong capital markets. Still trading at a premium to the group, and that's not warranted because of growth limits in US.

All banks are at risk if economy darkens. But if economic environment is OK, he thinks BMO has the best upside.

WEAK BUY

The steep fines they paid for money laundering are all in the rear-view mirror. TD is more exposed in the US vs. its peers. Is trading at a high valuation in this space. The worst is behind them. Pays nearly a 5% dividend. Other banks are his favourite, but you can own this.

BUY

Coming out of a really vulnerable time with money laundering. Settled case, implemented new protocols. US assets capped; but TD shifted some assets around, giving them space to grow without running afoul of the cap. New CEO is very committed to turning over a new leaf.

HOLD

It was losing last year but is winning this year and in fact is the only Canadian bank up this year. He is hesitant about doubling a position at this point since it should go sideways.

WAIT
Reports next week.

Was a screaming buy back at $78. Likes its Canadian banking business. Sold Schwab, redeployed proceeds back into Canada. Now at $90, she'd be hesitant to go into any bank right now before earnings. Suspects all banks will need to increase credit provisions. Wait to see plan for growing in Canada.

Over the very long term, it and RY are the 2 premier Canadian banks, so she'd be OK paying a premium to own.

BUY

Won't be an immediate fix, but remember that the market is a forward-looking, discounting mechanism. Q2 earnings results were much better than expected. Biggest segment is Canadian personal and commercial banking, and that missed expectations. Sizeable outperformance in US retail, strong outperformance in wealth management, did very well in capital markets.

Most over-capitalized bank in Canada. Will be buying back a lot of stock. Working hard to remediate money-laundering deficiencies in US. All its plans should help to rebuild investor confidence and restore its premium multiple.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The company is recovering from its US indiscretions, and recent earnings were good. Credit quality remains good, and recent cost-cutting efforts may help offset any potential economic weakness. The stock remains cheap with a good, secure dividend.
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BUY

It's the best Canadian bank performing so far this year, but the worst in 2024. Their US problems are not yet behind them (they have to work through the asset cap, part of the penalty for money laundering). They have limited growth in the US, but also won't need capital to grow. So they could buy back shares. TD trades at a discount, so he likes this for the long term.