SpaceXSPCXBUYAug 07, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 30, 2026. Market Open.
It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. Adjusted earnings beat and its first profits was a big step forward. Space, connectivity and super-intelligence were profitable. Their SI business generated more than half the company's revenue, but they spent $19.6 billion on capex last quarter and will double that in Q4, nearly double Wall Street's estimate.
He loves its Starlink business, and wishes he could buy just that. The problem is, he doesn't know enough of its space business. He can't model its earnings yet. He will watch and research it. It's a cult stock and doesn't trade at a normal valuation. It's too speculative and if he owed it, it would be a small holding.
Expects it to have very good growth for many years to come. (You won't get TSLA for free; there will be additional shares issued or some such arrangement.) Competition is way behind, but will increase. Chasm between the hyperbole and the numbers.
Not even close to being interested, even if valuation fell by half. TSLA had similar hype -- an idea that would come about in the future, with no competition, and it'll make "lots" of money (but margins are less than most car manufacturers).
Don't do it. IPOs are the ultimate hype machine. Operating fundamentals just aren't there yet, an emerging company. Market opportunity could be huge, but earnings and free cashflow are fairly speculative. Multiple of 80+x revenue is stratospheric.
Speculate in your own account if you want. But for your child, buy a compounder that can grow for 15-20 years.
One day, it could be a huge winner, but doesn't know when. Tomorrow, a huge block of shares will be unlocked by insiders. So, tomorrow the stocl will likely get hit again (-13.61% today). Musk has seen success with Tesla, so he can access funding. They just signed 1.7 million internet subscribers, and on the mobile side they're gunning for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobil customers.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.