Sienna Senior Living Inc (SIA.TO)

Not actually a REIT, but a corporation. Offers a nice blend of both capital appreciation and income. Half its portfolio is government-funded, long-term care; other half is private-pay retirement homes. Stability of government funding + tremendous growth from aging baby boomers. Well-covered, safe yield of 4.1%.

Sometimes investing is about keeping it simple. 

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SRU is very well-run, and Walmart is their anchor tenant, which is attractive. Tenant quality is high. But the problem with REITs is that in rocky economic times, REITs either have to cut their dividend or issue shares. He prefers stocks with low payout ratios. Sienna is not structured like a REIT, but the valuations in retirement home stocks like Sienna are much higher. He prefers Sienna, but owns neither.

Is an aging demographic play. Healthcare is a growth area. He likes what they do in the residence space, both retirement homes and long-term care homes. Ontario needs 48,000 LTC beds. SIA can grow into this. They can raise LTC rates and pay out a 4.5% dividend.

Operates long-term care and retirement homes. Are reaching their 95% occupancy rate in the latter this year, not next year as they previously predicted. Retirement levels are rising in Canada. Excellent fundamentals. Margins will expand.

Doesn't like this sector either. Sounds like a great growth story because of aging demographics. But you have to be careful about the labour element -- difficulty getting people to work in this area during Covid hasn't gone away.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Likes it long term. Trades more cheaply than CSH.UN.

Aging demographics continue to be a tailwind, but prefers Chartwell. Scores 7 for value and 5 for fundamentals. The 5% dividend could be stable. They operate across Canada in many markets and constantly add new properties.

Retirement + LTC (government funded), both great businesses. Research shows that the retirement side is now experiencing renewed growth. Company projects 95% occupancy levels by year's end or Q1 in 2026. Once that level is achieved, typically really see margins expand and additional revenues drop to bottom line. 

Age cohort of 80+ is estimated to grow 8% annually over next 10 years. Supply has fallen off a cliff, and projected to grow only 1%. Plus, new government funding model should see above-average earnings growth for an already high-growth company. Yield is 5.01%.

Supply/demand in the space is good. People usually move in to these places around age 80, and 2025 is the very beginning of baby boomers turning 80. This should really drive demand. Properties are hard to build, also tough to operate, so you really need good management. Entirely retirement, so a little more risk but also more upside. Does better when things in the sector are good.

SIA has a mix of retirement and long-term care, which is government funded, so it's always full. More bond-like, not a lot of growth but really predictable. Does better when things are weaker in the sector.

Demographics is a huge tailwind. LTC component is a steady business and government-controlled; transitioning a bit away from this. Canada-only. The 85+ demographic is expected to triple in the next 25 years. Yield is 5.6%.

Loves the space. Core holding. Wouldn't be shy adding here. Defensive profile, as over half its portfolio is in LTC. Mainly in Ontario, where wait list is over 50k. Rents are paid by the Ontario government. Nice job growing retirement side, with a compelling demographic.

Supply is barely 1% of inventory. Anytime there's a mismatch between supply/demand, it's usually a positive. Heading for 95% occupancy. Expects great cashflow growth.

Very compelling supply/demand fundamentals. Tailwind of seniors' population growth. Retirement portfolio recovering nicely. LTC care segment in Ontario is seeing massive waiting lists. Phenomenal management team. Discount to NAV. On track to higher occupancies. Yield is 6%.

This has been an extremely good performance year for long-term-care REITs. Not sure there's much more in terms of capital gains from where we are now. Unless substantial pullback, wouldn't buy now.

Good place to be. Lots of tailwinds in the sector, especially after Covid. 

Squarely within definition of growth for next 5 years. 42 LTC (97% occupied), 40 retirement homes (85% occupied, with goal of 95%). If goal is met, high single-digit internal growth over next several years. Yields around 6.7%.