James Telfser Sienna Senior Living Inc SIA-T HOLD Jul 25, 2024

Pandemic challenges continue, especially for labour. Good, long-term business. Costs have increased. Demand is still there. Starting to come back. Debt. Won't see dividend increases soon. If it goes up, take some money off the table. Better places to put your money.

It should get back to pre-pandemic levels but there are better growth opportunities elsewhere. Their investment in this space is in Chartwell which is all private pay and is no longer in the long term care business.

Adjusted revenue increased by 5.6%, and the company focused on operating efficiencies which led to NOI growth and a double-digit increase in Operating Funds from Operations. Its occupancy grew by 2.5% in Long-Term-Care, and during the quarter it paid down credit facilities, increased its liquidity, and extended its weighted average term to maturity of debt. Higher interest rates may increase its interest expenses in the coming years, but management still expects 1.0% to 1.5% growth in its 2023 operating margins in its retirement segment. These results were OK, but the company does trade at a high valuation and has a high debt load with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 8.9X. We feel this will take some time to see positive momentum.
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Private pay plus long-term care. LTC accounts for over half its business, government regulated, less potential for growth. Pandemic costs are waning. Likes the sector demographics. She owns CSH.UN instead.

He recommended this when shares were beaten up during Covid. The government wasn't going to let SIA fail. But he sold all shares around $14, because operating costs (labour) will forever will be higher. It's a tougher business now, though SIA is managed well and demand is huge from the aging population.

Squarely within definition of growth for next 5 years. 42 LTC (97% occupied), 40 retirement homes (85% occupied, with goal of 95%). If goal is met, high single-digit internal growth over next several years. Yields around 6.7%.

This has been an extremely good performance year for long-term-care REITs. Not sure there's much more in terms of capital gains from where we are now. Unless substantial pullback, wouldn't buy now.

Very compelling supply/demand fundamentals. Tailwind of seniors' population growth. Retirement portfolio recovering nicely. LTC care segment in Ontario is seeing massive waiting lists. Phenomenal management team. Discount to NAV. On track to higher occupancies. Yield is 6%.

Loves the space. Core holding. Wouldn't be shy adding here. Defensive profile, as over half its portfolio is in LTC. Mainly in Ontario, where wait list is over 50k. Rents are paid by the Ontario government. Nice job growing retirement side, with a compelling demographic.

Supply is barely 1% of inventory. Anytime there's a mismatch between supply/demand, it's usually a positive. Heading for 95% occupancy. Expects great cashflow growth.