Stockchase Opinions

Neil Murdock Schering Plough Corp SGP-N DON'T BUY Jan 13, 2003

Prefers Pfizer.
$23.680

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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Clariton has moved from a prescription drug in the US to an over the counter one, but their newer drug will be a prescription, meaning larger margins. Possible takeover.
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Have had a lot of difficulties. Their drug Clariton came off patent allowing competitors in. The new CEO has a good reputation. Have to see a big improvement in their drug pipeline.
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The drug Clariton will be going generic. At fair value now.
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Has been a basket case. Management issues. Could drop further.
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(Top Sell) With rising interest rates and high oil prices and slowing earnings growth can create some problems.

TOP PICK
Very well managed but has run into all kinds of problems in the last 3 or 4 months stemming from one of their major products Vitorin, which they market in a joint venture with Merck. If you value the company on sales and you give zero sales to Vitorin, you are getting the same multiple levels as the other pharmaceutical companies. Great pipeline. New drug coming out in May or June to treat paralysis.
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Drugs in general have been very poor performers. This company had its fortunes tied to one new drug and that things were happening to it. He can see no catalyst that would make him buy this.
DON'T BUY
Smaller US drug manufacturer. Has been hit along with the others. A big wall of branded drugs will be falling off and become generic in 2010 and 2011. Has also had negative news on some of its drug development. Decent pipeline of new drugs. Expecting volatility while leading up to the election. (See Top Picks.)
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Merging with Merck (MRK-N). Combination will create a very strong pipeline of products, which for many years will have a good growth profile. It will merge short to mid cycle products with longer-term type products and thinks there are significant synergy type benefits. You could also own Merk but this is a discounted way of playing this. (See also MRK-N.)