TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES.TO)
Financials 
Technical Analysis 
Jul 15, 2026, 12:00 amThis summary was created by AI, based on 16 opinions in the last 12 months.
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T) has garnered mixed reviews from various experts. While some analysts see potential for the stock, emphasizing its strong management and recurring revenue, others express concerns about the recent downward trajectory and the impact of the approved merger with GFL. The stock's performance has been volatile, with a good quarter yielding higher expectations, yet uncertainty surrounds the finalization of the deal. Despite a favorable business model in the non-cyclical waste management sector, the consensus suggests cautious optimism, with recommendations to hold off on selling before the merger closes. The outlook varies, with some analysts advocating for an accepting share conversion to GFL due to its promising growth potential, while others suggest risk mitigation strategies.
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Premium contentHard one to read right now. Chart shows good news from last November, but something's been wrong with the fundamentals afterwards. Drop in April was significant, and hasn't been able to come above that level of ~$15.85. It tried, but didn't succeed. Now starting to pull back a bit. Could hit $13.50 before it finds a bottom.
Premium contentPremium contentSES holds a basket of waste services and recycling assets that has recently expanded to include metals recycling -- not exciting business, but stable. It trades at 6x earnings and supports a 52% ROE. Cash flow is strong and growing rapidly to allow for aggressive debt retirement and shares buyback. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $9, looking to achieve $17 -- upside potential of 25%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $17.93)Waste remediation, metals recycling. Recurring revenue. Cashflow conversion rate to free cashflow extremely high in the 50% range. Growing by acquisition and organically. Allocating a lot of capital to buybacks, and Chairman recently added a big share. Industry is not too cyclical, not too hurt by tariffs. Valuation inexpensive. Yield is 2.91%.
(Analysts’ price target is $18.97)
Excellent business with recurring revenue stream. Waste management business mostly based in Western Canada. Very stable business. Trading at a discounted valuation from peers. Expecting lots of growth going forward.
Jerome HassSES is cheap and has a decent balance sheet. It pays a 2.63% dividend which has shown a bit of growth. At $3.6B, it is significantly larger than QST ever was. SES has decent cash flow and the stock is up 48% in the past year. 2025 earnings, however, are expected to decline, but this does seem reflected in the low valuation of 7X earnings. The business can be cyclical, but would consider it worth buying on valuation and potential.
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For the quarter-ended, SES reported EPS of 12c missing estimates of 13c. Revenue (Excl oil purchase and resale) beat estimates of $333M coming in at $337M declining from $353M from the year prior. Adjusted EBITDA was $114M, declining from $119M but coming in well-ahead of forecasts of $102.15M. The comapny's CEO stated, "Strong second quarter results were driven by robust industry fundamentals, favorable weather conditions, and continued operational execution across our business units, resulting in double digit revenue growth on a same store sales basis." SES also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance and repurchased approximately 11% of outstanding shares in the quarter. The decline in revenue appears to be driven by wek industry conditions, but we think the results are fine outside of that. The adjusted EBITDA guidance raise is good to see and SES continues to be cheap at 13.5x forward earnings.
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Environmental services. Processes wastewater for oil and gas, mid-stream processing and storage. Very attractive EBITDA margins of 35-40%. Just bought biggest competitor. Stock's down, as Competition Bureau is forcing divestitures. Company is appealing this, good chance of winning. 9x earnings, share buybacks. Yield is 6.10%.
(Analysts’ price target is $8.73)
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Our PAST TOP PICK with SES had achieved its target at $17.00. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $13.50) to $15.00.