NYSE:SCHW

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)

107.79
+0.48 (0.45%)
as of Sep 15, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
51 watching
0
DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

 TD still owns 9.8% of SCHW. While we are not too worried about a 'bank run' on Schwab, there is definitely a shift from low interest accounts to money market accounts, with estimates of $20B a month moving. 
Customers are staying, but this shift is likely to impact earnings. 
The company also bought long term bonds and has significant unrealized losses. So, it is a question of what happens next. 
On paper it looks fine, at 13X earnings, a good dividend and historical earnings growth. But EPS could be impacted by 30%, and that is before any decision to take a loss on the bond portfolio. Actual outflows have still been more than $1B a day, and in such cases investors and depositors cannot be counted on to act rationally. 
A bad headline could accelerate the situation. Brokers are falling over themselves to downgrade, and the stock has had its worst month since 1987. The CEO comments help, and there has been insider buying at least. But we can't really add depth. 
Either confidence returns, or it doesn't. In the latter, the company gets into an ugly situation of having to sell securities at a loss to backstop capital, and this can be a downward spiral. It is hard to really endorse it considered extreme uncertainty. 
Especially compared with safer Canadian banks with higher dividends and lower valuations. 
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BUY

It's too early to bottom-fish the regional banks. But the contagion has hit related sectors and stocks like Schwab, which has plunged from $76 below $52 though has bounced past $54. It's doing worse than the regional bank sector. Schwab got lumped unfairly with the regionals. Investors are nervous with a company that most of its investments in securities rather than loans. Schwab has 60% of their interest earnings assets in securities. Another concern is their $14 billion in unrealized losses in agency mortgage-backed securities, which is only a real worry if Schwab must sell its bonds in a pinch rather than holding them to maturity. Buy this dip. They can tap many sources of capital to stay liquid. They should have $100 billion in cash flow this year from regular business and can raise another $8 billion a month in selling certificates of deposit. Trading at 13x earnings now, a steep discount from its normal 19x. There's a ton of insider buying from the CEO and other execs. Net interest margin spreads can tighten, though. Earnings estimates have recently fallen. Bottom line: There's no crisis in Schwab.

DON'T BUY
SVB fall-out

He models $43.16, 16% lower than today. Wait. This will fall to book value at $29. It will bounce like crazy given the macro environment, not their fundamentals.

BUY
Great balance sheet, can grow and strong reputation. Doesn't think it will be taken out, though some do.
BUY
Trades at a low 16x PE. It's a w winner among brokerages, a space where many have closed down. It's an organic growth story. The PE can sustain itself. Lots of asset growth and momentum.
BUY
Trades at a low 16x PE. It's a w winner among brokerages, a space where many have closed down. It's an organic growth story. The PE can sustain itself. Lots of asset growth and momentum.
BUY
They make little in trading commissions, but make money in financial services for individuals and financial institutions. Trades at 15x earnings. Cheap. Overall better than, say, Robinhood.
BUY
She holds a lot of banks and financials, though diversified. Schwab will continue to grow as more financial advisors retire. Similarly, Blackrock offers a complex and deep set of solutions. They can grow even in current market headwinds.
BUY
Transaction volumes are high this year during market volatility, so she's been rewarded by that with Schwab.
Unspecified
It is wealth management only and therefore at the mercy of interest rates and the equity market so business is more challenging. It needs stable interest rates, stability in the fixed income market and an advancing equity market.
BUY
Retails investors who are pre- and current retirement will be tailwinds for Schwab. Will also benefit from the yield spread. Financial services as a whole will improve. She's bullish banks.
WEAK BUY
He likes Schwab, but MS' PE is half and he prefers that.
HOLD
The financial services group looks interesting and he is big into the space. Repricing of commissions will be challenging and it hampers SCHW's margins. If you think the yield curve steepens, this will help them. He would continue to hold, but there are others that he prefers like JPM.
DON'T BUY
It has a massive deposit base and when interest rates were rising it was doing well. Now that interest rates have stabilized, things have changed. The trading multiple has dropped, making more reasonably priced. He would still stay away at this point.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 31/18, Down 14%) Even if you look at a turn in rates, themes have an interruption. This one was 2-4 months long. We had that last fall. He would buy it here, or IAI-N. It is a great entry point.
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