Stock price when the opinion was issued
He'd probably pick Citi. Slimming down its foreign operations. CEO doing good job with the turnaround. Very reasonable valuations, close to book value.
SAN is a good bank and well-managed. Lots of exposure to Latin/South America and to Europe. The one to pick if you were really intent on international exposure. More volatile, as the economies it's in tend to be more cyclical.
There's lots of talk on the loss of American exceptionalism, and he thinks a lot of that is by people who are angry at America. Those comments are less about businesses and the entrepreneurial spirit. Still seeing pretty dynamic operations in the US.
He's going to pull the lens back, as he likes to look at things from a macro perspective. In 2020, we went from falling interest rates for 40 years to what is likely rising long-term interest rates for the next 25-30 years. That benefits banks in particular.
If you look at the XLF in the US, after going nowhere from 2008-2021, it finally made a new high. Beginning of a new long-term bull market that probably goes on 10-12 years. During that time, earnings go up and so do dividends. The multiple expands.
This year, the European banks joined in. 95% of global banks are trading above a rising 200-day MA. Don't be afraid of a bull market. This name would be a great add to any portfolio. A dividend growth stock, and when there's inflation a rising stream of income is pretty attractive to offset the rising cost of living.
Spanish economy has been good, tourism up, EU interest rates have fallen. Moving forward, where is expansion going to come from? Big risk is what if Spanish economy starts to struggle? If you've done well, consider paring back. Once you double your $$, good time to sell half and then the rest is free.
Storm clouds aren't out there yet. But a stock that's moved this quickly will most likely go sideways or down a little bit. Nothing wrong with taking some profits off the table.
Has liked financials for 3 years. Over last 18 months, has been very focused on international companies.
Largest bank outside the US. As good as any bank in the world, yet trades at just under 10x PE (compared to MS at 17x). Great exposure through South America and Europe. Very strong digital platform, good capital markets and commercial banking businesses. Growing consumer base. He's been buying pretty steadily over last 8-9 months.
A very large Spanish based bank. Have big franchises throughout Latin America as well as a British bank. Had to do a large and unexpected capital raise this year. There had been a bit of a relief rally in the Spanish market in 2013 and this did well, but still has too many dead assets on the balance sheet.