John Stephenson
Transocean Inc.
RIG-N
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Sep 28, 2009
This is the leader in terms of the complex semi-submersibles for deep shore applications. If you're comfortable with the currency risk, it looks like a good name to hold. Pretty much of a monopoly on the rigs and are booked years in advance. If it drops after the earnings, pick up more.
options action It's trading at $462. There was a buyer of 13,000 of the April 22 5 calls. What followed was six other energy companies had unusual options. He is overloaded in the energy space, but he added to his RIG calls.
Transocean is highly risky, but if these day rates continue to rise on oil rigs, this will be many multiples of its current share price. That said, they have an upside-down balance sheet. Don't rush into this. Do your homework.
High debt, which they are paying down from free cashflow. Rig counts are up, a big milestone. Super-duper, high beta name to own when oil's not falling 5% in a day. Be strategic when to add. 12-ish% free cashflow yield, but see his Top Picks for a more compelling name.
They report later today, but he's not interest in that, but rather the conference call about how tight the market is for deep-drilling rigs. He thinks it's a matter of when, not if, their rigs will be reactivated.