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NYSE:RDS.B
5.2% yield. He likes yield for oil stocks. It keeps the companies honest. It is a great place to park money to play the potential upswing. We are positioned for another leg up. Geopolitics can cut both ways but it is a tailwind right now. He feels the Iranian barrels will get to market but there is the risk premium from it. He also likes that the yield is getting higher. It makes the hurtle rates higher for shale buys. Higher interest rates are good for everyone.
The stock has been following the oil price, and just like oil, it has recently broken out. This is a sector they started moving into, an underappreciated sector that is maybe overlooked by the market. These breakouts that are happening on the whole sector because of oil prices are great. Thinks oil is going to have a little bit of resistance around $62 or so. It’s got some upside from here.
In the past couple of years, they’ve been paying a chunk of their dividend in shares for those who wanted it. Just announced that starting in the 4th quarter, there won’t be a choice. You will have to take your dividend in cash, which tells you that many of these large oil companies have figured out a way to make money with $50 oil. Their large acquisition of BG looks like it is starting to pay off. Generating a huge amount of free cash flow at these oil prices. Expects to see significant share buyback in the future.
With Brent at $60, it is fabulous for this company. They are starting to break out. Feels that Brent doesn't have much room to grow, being in the $55-$60 range, but what we are seeing right now in crude prices solidifies their dividend. A good safe way to play the global energy market, because it is both upstream and downstream. Dividend yield of 6.2%. (Analysts' price target £2,500.00.)
All these companies are investing more and more in renewables, as they see the future of oil. They’ve brought their cost structure down. Balance sheet is very, very strong. You’re getting a 6% dividend, but they are balancing out their portfolio and throwing off lots of free cash flow. Rising dividends are in the cards even if oil stays at $50. If oil gets weaker, these of the survivors.
His oil/gas percentage is down to around 5%-6%. He wouldn’t have qualms about the dividends, but he is not buying stocks for dividends. The oil market is challenged for a while. There is no way this is going to be an easy out now. We need crude higher than $50, or a lot of these companies are in jeopardy. These big ones are okay because they have very old fields at very low costs.
(A Top Pick May 19/16. Up 23%.) The cream of the crop of the major integrated, the only space he likes in energy. They struggle with oil and gas prices on the one hand, but the petrochemical business and refining benefits from low oil prices. 6%+ dividend. Bulletproof balance sheet. The dividend is covered by cash flow.
For refiners, seasonality usually starts around the middle of February, and goes through to May. We are now at the beginning for the period of seasonal strength. The chart shows a reverse head and shoulders pattern, one of the best typical patterns you want to see on a security. It works by taking the quantity of the pattern, and you can project what the target is going to be on the upside, between now and probably the beginning of May.
This is a call on higher energy prices. Super majors have done really well since the collapse of the oil price by cutting costs and CapX. This should hit cash or break even some time next year. Any modest upside in oil prices over time, will lead to higher dividends. A multiyear story, but will have some upside. Dividend yield of 7.19%. (Analysts’ price target is $62.70.)