Opinions
Christopher Blumas
Rogers Communications (B)
RCI.B-T
COMMENT
Sep 17, 2019
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Value story turned into a value trap. Whole sector's seen pressure. Is he freaking out over it being down? No. It's part of a balanced portfolio. Analogous to planting a garden -- not everything grows at the same time.
This wasn't his plan for the stock, but these things happen. You'll find that the stocks that are very unpopular become purged, especially on tax-loss selling. Then, when there is a catalyst, they do start to go higher and can do so quickly because they're under-owned. More importantly, it can give you some stability if markets come down; this one won't get sold, because everyone who wanted to sell already has.
RCI.B complaints by consumers has forced the stock down to very attractive levels. It trades at 14x earnings, under 2x book and has been building quarterly cash reserves while paying down debt. The robust yield is backed by a payout ratio under 75% of cashflow. There is room for the company to make improvements with their customers that shouldn't be too costly. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $35, looking to achieve $52.50 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 4.9%
(Analysts’ price target is $62.46)No exposure to telcos at this stage. Pretty decent, high-quality name, yet stock continues to suffer. 200-day MA is falling, and stock price is below that. Stock hit 52-week low today. Technically, not a name to be involved in.
May seem cheap on PE, but not a name he likes. As well, he's more a growth manager than a value manager. Nice dividend of 5.2%, but you'll have to keep an eye on that over time.
The immigration slowdown has weighed on all telcos, but there will be growing demand for bandwidth, services and data. Also, Rogers and Telus will monetize their towers by selling interest in them and giving cash flow to investors. Will this money reduce debt? This is a positive idea. Rogers has a low PE vs. peers, but also carries a lot of debt. Long term, fundamentals for the telcos are good, but you have to wait. Meanwhile, collect the dividend.
A very defensive space, telcos. Not a growth stock, but pays income. He prefers BCE, because it just finished a big capex cycle and pays a higher dividend. Also, wireless penetration in Canada is limited, which in turn limits growth. That said, all the Canadian telcos are good for the long-term. Buy for the dividend, not growth.