Stockchase Opinions

Ryan Bushell Pembina Pipeline Corp PPL-T PAST TOP PICK Aug 15, 2025

(A Top Pick Jul 29/24, Up 1%)

Surprised by underperformance. If he could pick it as a Top Pick again today, he would. Re-contracting of tolls on Alliance Pipeline bought from ENB was worse than expected. Really well positioned for increase in nat gas production in Western Canada. Continues to buy.

$50.760

Stock price when the opinion was issued

pipelines
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 10/24, Up 6%)

Still her favourite pipeline, especially at these levels. Best growth trajectory, and in best strategic position to handle growth in nat gas shipping with LNG Canada. Alliance Pipeline pricing has been an overhang. This is the one to own based on dividend growth, yield, and capex plan.

COMMENT

Yields 5.6% with a reasonable payout ratio but the cash flow is not moving enough to increase the dividend. He held it but moved into a gold stock for better returns. On pipelines in general, there are not any in their 'OK to buy list'. 

TOP PICK

With the idea of building income in a portfolio. Out of the spotlight, but with a catalyst. Everything is bad news around this name. Alliance Pipeline is a very special asset going from Alberta to Chicago area. Contracting issues right now, and stock's slid on the uncertainty. Those issues are fixable 1-2 years from now, it's just not known right now what the fix is. 

High quality, lots of prospects. Doesn't issue shares as much as other companies, business plan is tight. Can incrementally grow over the next few years. Might actually drop another $2. He put one leg in, would put another one in if it dropped. Yield is 5.7%.

(Analysts’ price target is $59.95)
TOP PICK

Energy infrastructure in Canada is one of the great areas to invest in. Fits in well with natural gas being moved east--west. Under pressure in last year due to tolling on Alliance Pipeline, but that's more than factored in. Lowest valuation of the group, so more potential for growth. Yield is 5.60%.

Canada's realized it needs to change some of its behaviour, and part of that includes energy infrastructure.

(Analysts’ price target is $59.20)
BUY

He is adding because of the 5 1/2% yield. The toll dispute was resolved on the weekend and it is ready for a new leg higher. Buy and wait for the market to recognize some of its value.

WEAK BUY

Has a rock-solid dividend. Prefers TC Energy and many Enbridge, partly because of US policy and the changing view in Canada about building pipelines. PPL would benefit less so than these companies. 

BUY

Should benefit from the energy boom. Has held for 5 years, last year hasn't been the best. Can't pinpoint why it's down, but looks good fundamentally. Loves the improving ROC; used to be 5-6%, but now up to 9% (pretty good for a utility). Palatable valuation at 11x EV/EBITDA. 

DON'T BUY

Macro environment is tough for energy and energy infrastructure. 200-day MA starting to trend lower, not a fantastic sign. Regulatory environment isn't that helpful either. Nice yield of 5.8%, which will probably remain steady going forward.

Not sure that government's new openness to exporting energy gives him optimism, as the stock price isn't reflecting that.

BUY

The worst-performing infrastructure-pipeline name in the short term. Are some issues with an asset in Canada where the regulated pricing has been set lower. That's holding this stock back. A well-run business with good assets, but has volatility. It has more outlets for growth vs. peers like ENB. Can buy this for the dividend and wait. The PE is low, and will always trade at a discount to peers, because less of its cash flow is regulated.