Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOHOLDAug 12, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
These pipelines are still very good dividend growth stories. He expects mid to high dividend growth for this company. They have a lot of CapX growth ahead of them, which is really underpinned by “take or pay” contracts. The only concern he has is the valuation. If you have a longer-term perspective, what do these contracts get revalued at when they come up for renewal?