Paramount Resources (POU.TO)

There is a rumour that Paramount has acquired a 9% holding in Nuvista. Paramount is outspending their cash flow and announced, if required, they may look to sell off assets and this could Nuvista. Both companies share prices have been pushed sharply lower as a result.

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Down 38%) This is the third version of this company, he suggests. Now a 90,000 boed producer it has stagnated with a large natural gas position. There is inconsistency in delivering economic results. He likes their assets, but he has gone to the sidelines to wait for that consistency to develop. They are trying to move their portfolio to include 45% liquids.

It is a fine company, he says, but would prefer to back other management teams who are doing a better job paying down debt. He is bullish heavy oil differentials for next year, so is targeting other companies.

Energy should get a bump with positive news. Enjoyed a good run in 2016 to mid-2017, then went sideways. If this falls below $12, then something significant is going on, but right now it looks okay.

A past top pick. He likes it. It's viewed as a natural gas stock, but it's really a condensate. Paramount missed its last quarter due to weather and a problem at a plant. It's a misunderstood stock. They run it like a private company and don't always tell investors what they're doing. Buy it on dips.

They get a premium to Western Canadian Select oil for their liquids. They missed their last quarter due to weather and their facilities, which is short-term in nature. So, the stock has pulled back under $15, which is a definite buy. This is midjudged as a gas stock. An energy play. (Analysts' price target: $21.22)

He would not own this stock. They have too much operational risk. Their funding is dependent on asset sales and management is vague on where future value is going to come from.

Seasonality, gassy stocks tends to be quite positive this time of year, from September through until the end of the year. This is showing some encouraging signs. Technically, it has just broken above resistance level and has established an upward trend. Also, it is outperforming the market. Momentum indicators are positive. If you own, stick with it until approximately the 2^nd week in December.

They have had a wild record. Management has done a fantastic job of selling assets. You want this management backing you in an energy bull market.

Has been a great performer. He would say this had 3 lives in the last year. 1.) A poor performance in 2016 when it got caught in low commodity prices forcing them to sell almost $3 billion in assets to pare down from 60,000 to 10,000 BOE’s a day. 2.) Being a liquids rich producer grew the 10,000 to 30,000. Executed according to plan and the stock has probably gone from $13 to almost $25 through that process. 3.) Just acquired Apache Canada and merged with Trilogy, and now back to 90,000 BOE’s a day. (Analysts’ price target of $25.)