Peter HodsonPetroKazakhstan IncPKZ.TOTOP PICKJul 26, 2005
Has been approached by numerous parties for a takeover. Trading at least half of international oil companies. Takeover will be higher than the current price.
The next several weeks are going to be very interesting. Have been some big developments this week with a formal offer coming in from China. Could be a counter bid from India. He would take some of the money off the table. Stock is cheap selling below net asset value. He is prepared to invest in this as a going concern.
More a case of holding for the $55 cash bid rather than buying. Has lots of oil and is trading very cheaply. Thinks there will eventually be a spinout of a junior oil by the current management which will create value.
The biggest risk is essentially the political/country risk. You can see the volatility of it in the last several months. Extremely cheap if you compare it to the integrated companies here in Canada. There are also some interested outside buyers. Feels there's s ome good upside on this.
A lot of problems with the government. Could be some buyers for the company and if you own, you could end up with a small premium over the present price. A lot of uncertainty and this will continue.
Looks like the company is up for sale, but expects the price will be within $5 of its current price. A fantastic story, but you never know from one day to another what's going to happen in that part of the world. Too hard to call.
Stock had been rising and the 200 day moving average had been doing very well until there was a big drop in early '05. 200 day moving average is starting to straighten out and is currently right where the price is. There was too much of a drastic sell off. If you own, use a $40 stop loss.
Has been rocketed this year by bad news. The Indian National Oil Company approached them about a possible takeover. This could result in a 3 way bidding war.
Kazakstan borders China and there is a pipeline being built which will start up at the end of this year. This company has the oil to fill it. There could also be an interest in China, Russia, India, etc. to acquire the company.
An interesting story. Has been hugely undervalued because of the whole political risk associated with where its operations are. Their problems would all be solved in the Chinese, the government or Lukoil acquired them. Think they will get a deal done and will pay 10/15% over its current price.