Stockchase Opinions

Gordon Reid Pfizer Inc PFE-N COMMENT May 03, 2016

Just reported and had quite good earnings. They are reeling, of course, from the government decision to not allow the Allergan deal to go through. There is a lot of debate because the 2 companies were within the law, but the tax inversion issue is a big one, and the way it was done is leaving a bad taste in people’s mouths. Pfizer is just starting to move out of the issue of Lipitor coming off patent. It was a blockbuster drug before, but when it goes generic you see sales drop dramatically. Their pipeline has been building. This company has had basically flat revenues and earnings for 4 or 5 years, and is trading at about 20X earnings. A bit of a “show me” stock, and that goes for most pharmaceuticals. You are better off going into biotechs. Prices have come down quite dramatically, and are trading at cheaper multiples than Pharma drug companies. Have a look at Biogen (BIIB-Q) or Celgene (CELG-Q).

$33.700

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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Unspecified

She likes the space but people are not investing in it. It has a low valuation and is tempting but she prefers elsewhere. It is a global leader in a crowded field. She sees 5% growth so there is some upside.

COMMENT

It needs a catalyst, like a new cancer formulation. Otherwise, you're just collecting that 6.75% dividend.

DON'T BUY

The problem with pharma is that their drugs all face a patent cliff. Over the last 25 years, pharma companies have tried to sustain themselves through consolidation (mergers, buying small companies). Caution: the dividend may look attractive, but that could be the result of the falling share price.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Laggard. Doesn't see anything in the healthcare sector that points to a turnaround in the near term. Target on the sector's back on margins. Stock's bounced over the last few weeks, use that to move on.

WATCH

Worth taking a good, hard look at. Phenomenal yield, and he likes yield. Chart is starting to form a bit of a bottom. Low PE. Has things in the pipeline that the market's not paying for. If you're a longer-term investor, well worth sitting on it and getting rewarded while you wait for an upside pop from the drugs coming through as hoped. 

He's looking at it closely.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows. Never assume that the downtrend's over until the chart proves it. Last high and last low are being taken out. If you own, wait till it rallies and then get out.

Unspecified

Holds it in the dividend income fund. Has a safe dividend of 6 to 6 1/2% with cash flow. Has a large pipeline of new drugs but it is difficult to predict how many or which ones will take.

DON'T BUY

Sold it a few years ago because R&D activity wasn't there, and were overpaying for companies, namely Seagen. The stock is cheap, but carries a lot of debt. Isn't sure if the dividend is secure. 

DON'T BUY

It reports Tuesday. We need to see dramatic results in its drug trials. Shareholders are getting restive. It's been a while since they bought Seagen. Who knows what Trump has up his sleeve against this industry.

BUY

One of the most interesting stocks out there. One of the world's leading pharma companies. Still has a very strong research platform. Earnings have been improving due to cost-cutting. Will probably hit another homerun drug in the next few years. Yield is almost 7%, not in trouble.