Stock price when the opinion was issued
He's bullish on nat gas, with the proviso that it depends on the weather (always the Achilles heel). Lots of positives: AI, data centres, US doubling LNG export capacity between now and 2030. Really good acquisition recently -- a natural fit, bringing down costs, hedged price of nat gas.
Trades at material discount to US peers. Several decades of inventory. Not as torquey as other names. Yield is 7.8%, happy to earn in his income fund and write calls on it.
Will benefit along with others from LNG Canada. But it's dry gas, so not as much optionality. Lowest-cost producer around. Has no issues with the name, but depends what you're looking for. Other names she likes more.
She owns ARX, which is more wet gas. You get the NGL plus the condensate. Long reserve life of assets.
EPS of 39c slightly beat estimates; revenue of $310M was 1% short of estimates. EBITDA of $502M was much higher than expected. Capex is still seen at $450M to $500M. Production of 133,426 b/d beat estimates of 132,943 b/d. Production rose 11%. Consensus calls for very good growth in 2025 as natural gas prices have already improved nicely. We are comfortable with the numbers and the stock remains very cheap.
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His only natural gas exposure in Western Canada is Tourmaline (TOU-T). You would have to be really constructive on Canadian natural gas pricing (AECO) to really want to own this. A very high-quality company with good assets, good management and a reasonable balance sheet. Pays a dividend yield of north of 8%, which is probably telling you something.