Steve BelislePremium Brands Holdings CorpPBH.TOBUYDec 29, 2016

Trades at 13x forward PE, but will grow 20% for the next year or two. Are selling $1 billion in non-core asset sales, which will improve their balance sheet. Recent pressure has come from rising prices, but are turning a corner here. Is a staple, so there is underlying demand. They are overcoming their margin issues.

Shares slid from $100 to $80 after a bad quarter. It wasn't that bad. Yes, beef prices are up, but they've invested $750 million to expand capacity in the US and are set to grow. Are selling foreign assets. They are doing everything right.

Trying to fill its excess capacity after years of investing in the US. Seems to stumble over and over in filling capacity. A bit exposed to economic cycle. Need to see better execution.

Accounting practices are a bit aggressive, he's not a fan.

COST Canada is a customer. Invested in US capacity buildout to entice COST in US, and we're only starting to see fruit of that investment. COST seen as discount retailer of high quality, and trend is to higher-quality food -- fits perfectly with PBH. Stock's come off on worries about consumer and gas prices. 

Gives you diversification geographically and away from energy/utilities. Stability and capital preservation. Good management. Yield is 4.06%.

Some issues. Stock’s been largely flat over last year or more. Small dividend. Expansion plans into the US as a way to mitigate tariffs. Long-term tailwinds. Concerns on debt levels. Topline growth needs more juice. Need to be patient, add on strength. Yield is 4%.

He bought this last summer around $88-90. Likes management and pays a 3.4% dividend. Sales have grown the past 10 years due to tuck-in acquisitions and product growth. Likes their strategy being on both sides of the border to avoid tariffs. The balance sheet is stretched. Is a good long-term hold.

PE is 11x earnings for 2027. Decent growth. This is what happens when you get 4 consecutive years of guidance reductions. Selling non-core assets would help. Way too much debt. A show-me story. Concern about commodities and pass-through inflation.

Enough stories out there that have delivered over the last 4 years that are also cheap.

If oil stays high, inflation will eventually impact consumers. Lots of ups and downs, but longer-term trend has been up. Fantastic M&A and integration, rinse and repeat.

Part of the "everything else" trade. Since software has been beaten down, and the Mag 7 is threatened, everything else (particularly small caps) has had a big rally. But these stocks may be less appealing once Mag 7's are back in vogue.

Good value. Time to buy? Depends on costs, and whether we'll see margin stabilization. Reasonable levels here. Trades at 12x PE for 2027, with 29% growth if things work out well. Good stock to own around $100. 

They were doing a huge expansion into the US. They have existing deals with Costco in Canada to build capacity and grow. She always adds shares below $100. Pays a 3% dividend.

Spent last year expanding US facilities to be able to take on US customers, such as COST. Their products are everywhere (such as breakfast sandwiches for SBUX), but you just don't know it. Able to grow, and believes expansion into US will continue to do well. Yield is ~3.4%.

PBH does not have the best record; it has missed seven of the past 12 quarters. But it did 'beat' in the most recent three quarters. The stock has finally caught a bid, and it is managing tariffs and other issues well. Consensus still calls for very good EPS growth next year. We have no reason to be overly concerned, but if one is trading the quarter (not advised) it looks to be a coin toss. We still think it is fine long term. If one is concerned or overweight we would be fine trimming in such a case.
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There is a move away from processed foods, but volumes are still growing. Client SBUX is closing stores, but also opening new ones. His firm started purchasing in March, but hasn't been able to buy full positions because the stock ran away on them. Perhaps on a broader market pullback.
 
Reporting soon, and the quarter could be a bit messy. Ramping up with COST, and that's taken a lot of capex and added capacity that has to be filled. Well managed. A dependable industry. Good dividend yield of 3.5%.

One of the strongest management teams in that retail space. About to capitalize on a large capacity buildout in US, now can handle extra orders coming in. COST is a big client. Sees stock going higher. RY recently upgraded it to "Buy".

His firm likes to hold stocks forever, or at least for 5 years. Really likes management -- focused on sustainably growing dividend, so doesn't take on too much risk all at once. Stock popped on recent earnings.