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NASDAQ:PAYX

Paychex (PAYX)

98.25
+0.01 (0.01%)
as of Jun 18, 2026, 7:59:59 pm Market Open.
101 watching
0
Investor Insights
star iconJun 19, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 4 opinions in the last 12 months.

Paychex (PAYX-Q) is navigating a complex environment, with a current annual dividend yield of around 4.5% to 4.7%. There are concerns stemming from fears that AI could disrupt its core business, although some experts believe that AI could actually complement their operations, enhancing the data available for small and medium businesses. Recent performance shows a decline of 14% over the past three months despite a solid focus on serving small businesses, prompting investors to be cautious given worries over unemployment rates. A recent mixed earnings report highlighted in-line earnings but lower revenue projections, contributing to a 9% drop in stock price. Despite these fluctuations and market sentiment, there is potential optimism surrounding their merger with Paycore, which might have impacted their recent financial results.

consensus icon
Consensus
Cautious
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Valuation
Fair Value
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Similar
ADP
BUY ON WEAKNESS
A great growth profile and a decent yield. His model price is just above $71. He would be a buyer at $61. Yield 3%
COMMENT
Interesting company. Only have domestic revenues. Offer outsourcing HR services. Perennial dividend increaser. Recent acquisition will propel growth.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 01/18, Up 19%) This is the #2 player in payroll processing. It caters more toward the mid tier market. This is a growth business.
HOLD
CSCO vs. PAYX. You can own both because they're not in the same industries. Both growing around the same rate. Stigma for Cisco is the hardware side. Its growth is coming from security and software. Paychex is chugging along, with HR, insurance, payroll deposits. Paychex gets to earn interest over the weekend in free money, so it's a cash cow. Whereas Cisco is a bit more cyclical.
HOLD
Very toppy. Now at $70. It consolidated at $60 which he likes. Continue to hold.
BUY
Revenue growth up 7% last quarter. Interesting acquisition has brought them beyond payroll and into HR. Seeing higher earnings growth because of that. Trading at 20-25x earnings. Dividend's going up. Every time the Fed raises rates, PAYX makes a ton of free money by holding over the weekend before remitting.
BUY
Payroll processor for small/medium-sized companies. They're a cash cow. Interest rates are rising, so they make more money. In the last quarter, organic growth was 9%, 3x the US economy's rate. Profits up 18%. Dividend rising. Unlike Square, PAYX deals with all the States in America. Trades at 18-21x earnings. Dividend around 3%.
COMMENT

Model price is 63.70 so it is 12% overvalued. When it comes back to the model price he would be a buyer.

WATCH

Similar to ADP who is focused on the small and medium sized companies. When the economy is really strong this company will do well. His concern is that the economy may be at peak capacity, with unemployment less than 4% -- how many more paycheques can they write? This is also outside the seasonal peak for the sector. Technically, it needs to hold key support near these levels.

WATCH

This company had a great run in 2017, but recently has failed to perform. Price is two times growth in the P/E (i.e. the P/E is around 20, while growth is about 10%) – this is expensive. Keep it on your radar.

TOP PICK

Just made an acquisition in Europe where they are growing to become more international. It's a cash cow--they bankroll payroll deductions before IRS payments so they make the interest. 3.3% dividend yield. Stock fell way too fast, so here's an opportunity. (Analysts' price target $65.02)

TOP PICK

They can benefit from the Trump tax breaks. This is number 2 and cater to the medium to small businesses. This is in the sweet spot for American growth. Great margins, 40% plus ROE and a 3% yield that they keep raising. (Analysts’ target: $69.35).

COMMENT

A payroll processing company. They typically focus on the smaller portions of the economy, small/medium size companies. This is a good Buy for a long-term hold. People who have owned this for a long period of time have done very well. Has a very strong balance sheet. Because companies have to pay employees in advance, they carry a float, and that float will earn increasingly higher returns with higher interest rates. It raises its dividend's very consistently. At this point, it is a little rich.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 13/17. Up 12.73%.) A play on rising interest rates. For every quarter percent interest rates rise, this company, because they are a payroll processor, get to bank $4 billion of other people's money over the weekend, before remitting it to the payroll taxes. Because they were paying the top tax rate of 35%, and it has dropped to 21%, there may be a 50%-100% increase in the dividend in September.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 13/17. Up 10%.) Basically does HR and payroll services. Every 2 weeks, when all these little companies have to remit their IRS payroll taxes, this company gets to grab $4 billion and park it over the weekend at rising interest rates. For every .25% interest rates rise in the US, this company makes free money of $3 million. They are catering to small-medium-sized businesses of 15 employees or less, so their business is picking up, revenues are growing and with tax cuts from 35% to 21%, it is going to release a lot of cash flow with an increasing dividend that could be as high as 50%.

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