Opinions Richard Fogler
Overseas ShipholdingOSGPAST TOP PICKNov 14, 2011
(A Top Pick July 22/11. Down 41.47%.) Still buying this. Oil tankers are not going to improve until at least next year at best. Long term hold.
Richard FoglerOwned
$14.35
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$6.34
As of Jul 02, 2026. Market Open.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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DON'T BUY
Concerns about shipping. Ton of ships that are commissioned and getting built and there will be an over supply when they are built. Showing economy in China means less demand. Longer term we need to see some capacity rationalization, scrapping. Prefers 316-HK but would not buy unless it comes down.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Cancellation of the dividend is a prudent decision on management's part. Day rates for their vessels have been absolutely decimated and this company operates about 116 double hulled vessels. Have more of a focus on the Very Large Crude Carriers. Day rates have come down from about $27,000 per day to about $17,500 per day. He would be a little more optimistic on Teekay Corp (TK-N) which has the largest fleet of Aframaxes which are more manoeuvrable.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
There are some issues happening with regards to the shipping industry. On the container side you have overcapacity. 2010 was a record year but 2011 was a very poor year and you are generally starting to see freight rates climb. There are others that he would prefer.
Transportation & Environmental Services
COMMENT
Chart shows big downtrend from early 2010. Seems to have a bottom at around $10. Shipping rates have come down dramatically because of large, large ships being built that are the equivalent of 2 so make sure this company has these. From a risk/reward standpoint, you could take a stab right around the current price and at this price should work out.
Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
Huge capacity of extra ships coming online. All of these guys are loosing money. Good news is that every year ships get scrapped because they are not efficient. There are a record number of new ships being ordered. 2011 will turn out to be the bottom of the trough for them. Because of Iran, a lot of buyers of oil will have to buy oil by ship, which will be a net benefit for these guys.
Lorne SteinbergOwned
Transportation & Environmental Services
HOLD
A survivor in a very tough industry. Suffering from high oil prices and Libya is not shipping oil. You have to sit with this company. He added to his recently.
Lorne SteinbergOwned
Transportation & Environmental Services
STRONG BUY
Just added to it. Has been a huge amount of insider buying. Looks like this will be the bottom quarter for them. Worst appears to be over. Looking for upside surprises. Addition of Libyan oil to the market will bring prices down for oil and be a benefit for OSG.
Lorne SteinbergOwned
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Has a lot of head winds to it. Oil tanker business is over developed over the last couple of years. IF we have slow growth in North America it wont bode well for a stock like this. Not a great balance sheet. Keystone will have an impact on tanker shipping North South. But it appears to be cheap.
Transportation & Environmental Services
TOP PICK
Contrarian play. It’s a long-term (3-5 years) play. It is the largest oil tanker company in the world. Oil prices have nothing to do with their rates. What matters to them is the supply/demand balance and number of ships out there. New ships are coming on this year and next. Tangible book value of $65. He thinks it is a triple over 3 years.
Richard FoglerOwned
Transportation & Environmental Services
