Opinions
Richard Fogler
Overseas Shipholding
OSG-N
TOP PICK
Jul 22, 2011
Contrarian play. It’s a long-term (3-5 years) play. It is the largest oil tanker company in the world. Oil prices have nothing to do with their rates. What matters to them is the supply/demand balance and number of ships out there. New ships are coming on this year and next. Tangible book value of $65. He thinks it is a triple over 3 years.
$25.320
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Transportation & Environmental Services
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BUY
Huge capacity of extra ships coming online. All of these guys are loosing money. Good news is that every year ships get scrapped because they are not efficient. There are a record number of new ships being ordered. 2011 will turn out to be the bottom of the trough for them. Because of Iran, a lot of buyers of oil will have to buy oil by ship, which will be a net benefit for these guys.
Transportation & Environmental Services
COMMENT
Chart shows big downtrend from early 2010. Seems to have a bottom at around $10. Shipping rates have come down dramatically because of large, large ships being built that are the equivalent of 2 so make sure this company has these. From a risk/reward standpoint, you could take a stab right around the current price and at this price should work out.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
There are some issues happening with regards to the shipping industry. On the container side you have overcapacity. 2010 was a record year but 2011 was a very poor year and you are generally starting to see freight rates climb. There are others that he would prefer.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Cancellation of the dividend is a prudent decision on management's part. Day rates for their vessels have been absolutely decimated and this company operates about 116 double hulled vessels. Have more of a focus on the Very Large Crude Carriers. Day rates have come down from about $27,000 per day to about $17,500 per day. He would be a little more optimistic on Teekay Corp (TK-N) which has the largest fleet of Aframaxes which are more manoeuvrable.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Concerns about shipping. Ton of ships that are commissioned and getting built and there will be an over supply when they are built. Showing economy in China means less demand. Longer term we need to see some capacity rationalization, scrapping. Prefers 316-HK but would not buy unless it comes down.
Transportation & Environmental Services