NVIDIA CorporationNVDABUYDec 19, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 02, 2026. Market Open.
Likes it at these levels. Blackwell chip remains the solution for Gen AI workloads. New Rubin platform will keep it in the lead for years to come. Market's concerned that this is as good as it gets -- revenues decelerate, margins decline, market matures, new competitors enter. How long can you possibly maintain 55% net margins?
Still, street remains bullish with a $300 price target.
Not invested right now, as it's very hard to justify upside to earnings from analysts' estimates. Stock's cheap, so not bad from risk/reward. On the flipside, when the market sells off it has very good valuation support because the multiple's so low. Some upside, with pretty decent downside protection.
But other stocks have much more significant earnings upside. Not the pick for outsized performance.
The de facto place to go to take advantage of the AI revolution. Whether this continues is a very difficult question. Competition is starting to creep up, but remains to be seen whether they can do anything of scale. He'd be surprised if NVDA's economics are the same 5 years from now.
Be careful, as you're betting on fund flow dynamics around AI. Investors might consider it time to move to the next layer of investments that can benefit from AI (and are more predictable than chip economics several years from now).
He just bought more on this dip. The valuation is lower, cheaper. Strong revenues and cash flow and share buy backs. It's only the second time he's been able to add to it. Is comfortable buying below $200. Is an investment, not a trade. Demand continues to outpace supply, and the Blackwell is ramping up faster than any product in history.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.
He always says buy this, don't trade it. They just delivered another set of stunning numbers: revenue growing 85% year over year, revenue beating with most of their growth coming from their core data centre business, hyperscaler revenues up 115% YOY while other areas grew 74% YOY, while gross margins were in line, free cash flow beat, and announced an $80 billion share buyback. They raised guidance, too. But the stock is so big, it's hard to surprised investors, so the stock is flat after hours.
Likes it fundamentally, but a lot of things are overbought at this point. Be cautious how you step in. Will do well over next 12-24 months. Relatively cheap compared to other growth stories out there. The "arms dealer" of the AI buildout. Like the "picks & shovels" of the AI "gold rush". An ecosystem of hardware and software.
Will benefit from the major capex spend by hyperscalers. Earnings growth forecast for next few years is 45% a year. PEG ratio ~0.6x, very attractive valuation. Yield is 0.02%.
Would rather own Meta or Nvidia than Amazon, because the former have better multiples and earnings growth (for 2026).