Stockchase InsightsNVIDIA CorporationNVDAPARTIAL BUYAug 25, 2023

Doesn't think it will reach $210 unless it radically expands its share buyback.

Blackwell continues to outpace; demand is unbelievable and are now approaching $100 billion per quarter.

Full stack AI infrastructure platform can minimize competition. Not just the commoditized chip, but in systems, networking, and software. It's an enterprise technology ecosystem. Backbone of the AI buildout. Clear beneficiary of global infrastructure expansion.

Hyperscalers are potentially spending ~$1T USD next year, by 2030 it could be $4T. Will be a beneficiary. Still sees over 50% earnings growth rate over next few years. Inexpensive at well under 1x PEG and 24x PE. Bouncing off 200-day MA right now. Yield is 0.50%.

Likes it at these levels. Blackwell chip remains the solution for Gen AI workloads. New Rubin platform will keep it in the lead for years to come. Market's concerned that this is as good as it gets -- revenues decelerate, margins decline, market matures, new competitors enter. How long can you possibly maintain 55% net margins? 

Still, street remains bullish with a $300 price target.

Not invested right now, as it's very hard to justify upside to earnings from analysts' estimates. Stock's cheap, so not bad from risk/reward. On the flipside, when the market sells off it has very good valuation support because the multiple's so low. Some upside, with pretty decent downside protection. 

But other stocks have much more significant earnings upside. Not the pick for outsized performance.

The de facto place to go to take advantage of the AI revolution. Whether this continues is a very difficult question. Competition is starting to creep up, but remains to be seen whether they can do anything of scale. He'd be surprised if NVDA's economics are the same 5 years from now.

Be careful, as you're betting on fund flow dynamics around AI. Investors might consider it time to move to the next layer of investments that can benefit from AI (and are more predictable than chip economics several years from now).

He just bought more on this dip. The valuation is lower, cheaper. Strong revenues and cash flow and share buy backs. It's only the second time he's been able to add to it. Is comfortable buying below $200. Is an investment, not a trade. Demand continues to outpace supply, and the Blackwell is ramping up faster than any product in history.

They've been in the sweet spot of semis. They will continue to benefit from the capex spend by the hyperscalers. But others can compete better like AMD. NVDA's lead protects them, though. Smart CEO. NVDA will be volatile.

From a value point of view, NVDA sticks out as cheaper (~22x PE) in the space. But he's been reducing his exposure to the sector. The capex isn't slowing down anytime soon. When the music stops on this, you have to be really wary. Cyclical. Very cautious on semis.

Continues to buy for new clients (he uses RSI to pinpoint an entry point that will deliver value). Beneficiary of the AI capex tailwind. For him, remains the toll road of the AI buildout.

Fantastic earnings. It sold off at 22x PE. Likes it here.

His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.

On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.

Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.

Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.

Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.