
NASDAQ:NFLX
Streaming is the new normal. Clear leader, the proof is in their huge and growing subscriber count. Competitive landscape. Strong pricing power and best-in-class customer retention via aggressive investment in original content. Tailwind of digital advertising. Should be rapid free cashflow growth. Consensus is compounded earnings of 28% over next 3 years. At 34x, discount valuation of 20% compared to its own history. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $621.10)An interesting call and he wouldn't be surprised if YouTube became a leader. The only pull in live TV are live sports and business. The move into live sports, like WWE, is positive for Netflix; profits and not more subscribers has been their focus lately, while their content remains strong.
It reported after the bell yesterday. It reported a monster beat in paid subscribers and revenue beat, sales up 12.5% YOY, and the second straight quarter of accelerating revenue growth. Netflix is mature and the operating margin was strong, but missed earnings because of a one-time tax hit that nobody cared about. Guidance was mixed: sales was light and operating income much better. The 13.1 million paid net subs additions was due to the password crackdown and offering an ad-supported tier (with target ads). This remains an exciting story. The company expects double-digit growth. Despite that, some analysts have downgraded the stock, noting that it's too early to count on the ad-supported tier to deliver meaningful revenues. However, he maintains that Americans may take Netflix for granted, but there's still a lot of room to grow internationally. Plus, the ad tire has been successful, which suggests that there is room to grow in the U.S. The company continues to prove its profitability and cash flow. Also, one of those analysts has always called Netflix wrong. And they have content from around the globe, another plus. It seems pricey at 32x PE, but it's worth it.
They continue to execute by delivering new content. They leverage foreign content with amazing dubbing to present to North American audiences. Their subscription rates continue to go up. It's clearly the #1 streamer. But they spend a lot on content, and the PE of 40x is too high for him. Fears of Disney+ overtaking them never happened.
Good company, but is it a good stock? Moved sharply higher on the back of success. Declared winner of the streaming wars. Watch profitability and margins in the NA markets, as that's where it makes money. Priced aggressively. On valuation, he'd need 20-30% drop before being interested.