Gavin GrahamNAL Energy CorpNAE.TOCOMMENTJan 14, 2009
This depends on your view of the oil/gas price. Will likely be some reduction in payouts this year if prices stay at current levels. He believes oil/gas has legs and $70-$100 is a pretty reasonable expectation longer-term.
Acquisition by Pengrowth (PGF-T). Is this a good deal for the stockholders? He is not super enthused about Pengrowth. As a combined company, they'll get some good assets from the NAL but expects they will have to get rid of some assets to maintain their payout. He is going to Watch and not dump his position yet.
This company is being acquired. What happens to the 6.25% convertible shares that are maturing Dec/14? A “change of control” clause gets triggered and NAL will basically offer you your money back. You don't want to do that because this takeover creates a stronger company and credit quality is improving.
There was anticipation of the cut. He averaged down. Payout ratio is ok. With a secure yield at this level he is quite happy to sit with it. It is acting very well in sell-offs.
Dividend is sustainable through 2012 but after that it depends on energy prices. They are doing the best they can to keep the dividend where it is. If Nat. Gas prices remain low there is potential for a cut. Still owns it but is not thrilled with it. He is not looking to exit at this point
Just added to his positions. Liked the company and where they are drilling in Alberta. They are good managers, but someone has been selling it and it has been significant and it has brought the stock down. They did cut the dividend but it is still at 8%. Will do quite well over the next couple of years.
Meeting tomorrow with management. Cut distribution from 7 to 5 cents. Probably a good thing to do. They are a conservatively managed company. His gut feel today is to stick with it.
Came off fairly sharply. Not currently on his buy list. Prefers a number of other things in the sector. Would not be in a rush to get out of it. Don’t stay too long either. Look for an opportunity if it bounces.
Still likes this one but is more favoured towards other names such as Crescent Point (CPG-T) and Arc Energy (ARX-T) but this one trades at a discount to the group. There are some questions as to how sustainable the oil/gas companies growth pattern is as their balance sheets become more and more restrained. Better names to own.
The present $0.94 will probably go to $0.48 and is probably already in the price of the shares. BOE production is probably 40,000 barrels a day, which is too small for him. Good small company. The smaller companies will get merged or taken out.
Balanced between oil and natural gas. People think the dividend may be at risk and that it is over leveraged. Yield of 12.1%. He is expecting $90 oil and about $6 natural gas for 2012. He is comfortable with the dividend given the asset base have.
(A Top Pick Dec 17/10. Down 40.52%.) Good management. They are in the cardium. Back in the spring, new selling came in and has been going on ever since. Using about 11%. Still a Hold.