Peter Brieger
NAL Energy Corp
NAE-T
COMMENT
Dec 16, 2011
The present $0.94 will probably go to $0.48 and is probably already in the price of the shares. BOE production is probably 40,000 barrels a day, which is too small for him. Good small company. The smaller companies will get merged or taken out.
Meeting tomorrow with management. Cut distribution from 7 to 5 cents. Probably a good thing to do. They are a conservatively managed company. His gut feel today is to stick with it.
Just added to his positions. Liked the company and where they are drilling in Alberta. They are good managers, but someone has been selling it and it has been significant and it has brought the stock down. They did cut the dividend but it is still at 8%. Will do quite well over the next couple of years.
Dividend is sustainable through 2012 but after that it depends on energy prices. They are doing the best they can to keep the dividend where it is. If Nat. Gas prices remain low there is potential for a cut. Still owns it but is not thrilled with it. He is not looking to exit at this point
There was anticipation of the cut. He averaged down. Payout ratio is ok. With a secure yield at this level he is quite happy to sit with it. It is acting very well in sell-offs.
This company is being acquired. What happens to the 6.25% convertible shares that are maturing Dec/14? A “change of control” clause gets triggered and NAL will basically offer you your money back. You don't want to do that because this takeover creates a stronger company and credit quality is improving.
Acquisition by Pengrowth (PGF-T). Is this a good deal for the stockholders? He is not super enthused about Pengrowth. As a combined company, they'll get some good assets from the NAL but expects they will have to get rid of some assets to maintain their payout. He is going to Watch and not dump his position yet.