Micron TechnologyMUWATCHOct 26, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 09, 2026. Market Open.
It has had a big run so don't chase it. When stock prices go parabolic price targets go out the window. He compares Micron to SK Hynix (Korean) which IPO's on Friday and could take some of the liquidity out of the memory space. Also Sandisk and Seagate which are also a bit stretched. One company has a price target of $1800 but he has sold 2/3 of his position because he has made so much money. It is one of the kings in computer memory and data storage solutions. You could buy it at $975 and lower.
A bit late in the cycle to put new $$ in, though there's about 2-3 more years in the memory cycle. Prices have really spiked (up 7x). If prices stall, and even if volume continues to ramp up, people will stop being so excited. Still upside, but risky at this point.
Memory is a big area for the agentic AI wave, but there are better ways to participate.
Based on previous cycles where momentum can turn on a dime, Micron is especially vulnerable to this. Chips are acting like a commodity. That said, he doesn't see their share price or earning declining. A caveat is adding capacity, which has always killed the chips cycle. The difference is that now it takes longer given supply chain issues to add this capacity. Maybe one or two years out, MU will turn, doesn't know.
Demands is outstripping supply, driving prices up. Is this the right time enter a stock that's up so much (220% this year)? No technician will say it is. That said, the fundamentals support MU right now. Twelve months from now, capex can continue at this clip, though she is skeptical earnings can continue to grow 20-30% every quarter. Semis need a cooling off period.
It's too late to buy it. It up 219% this year. MU is seeing a massive uptick in earnings growth due to price increases. This situation rarely lasts after a couple of years when peers compete and become suppliers. Also, the LLMs and data centres will eventually find ways to use less memory. All it takes is for someone to say that they have found 20% more memory efficiency and MU stock could be $700 in two seconds.
His model price has fallen from about $70 to $24.17, but it is a cyclical, one of the biggest in the technology sector. There is a lot of chatter out there about just how the iPhone 6S is doing. The suppliers of the iPhone 6 parts have all been pre-announcing. PC sales are also way off. This one is very hard to recommend. He thinks it will back off to $12.60. We will know more when Apple comes out with earnings tomorrow night. The time to buy this company is when there are no earnings. He thinks there is still more downside.