Opinions
Christine Poole
Microsoft Corp
MSFT-Q
TOP PICK
Oct 21, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A month ago, he reduced his tech holdings a lot. Thirst for AI continues pretty strong. Economic environment would have to be pretty tough for this name to go down too much more, but that could happen.
Both names are great. MSFT is a bit more expensive. META can suffer more on advertising if we go into a tougher economic environment. If you're confident that Trump wants to win the midterms and wants to be popular, and that we're going to avoid the worst-case outcome, you can buy both at these levels. Between the two, META gets the nod.
They report Wednesday. They've disappointed 3 straight quarters, with soft outlooks after delivering solid results. Co-Pilot needs to gain serious traction while data centre spending stays strong, but not too strong, and hopes that Azure resumes acceleration. If it misses once more, this will be punished.
Premium contentHe has been buying tech during this dip, in April particularly. We will eventually exit this volatility and find stability and confidence in the market again. Meta and Microsoft are some of his key holdings, and they affirmed their capex guidance--they are spending to make incredible investments over the next three years, because they know AI is the biggest super-cycle every in technology. There is incredible pent-up demand for AI from businesses and consumers. The CEO of MSFT reported that his company processed 50 trillion tokens last month alone, or 3.5 million years of AI conversation.
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At the bottom of the Mag 7 on price appreciation, up only 11% this year. Stock's done nothing since last reporting in July. Growth of cloud computing was at low end of expectations, and guidance was also slightly lower. No one likes a company that trades at 30x PE to miss consensus expectations. Company sees growth picking up in back half of next year. Capital spending increased 25% this year as they build out data centres for AI; slated to increase again next year. Being put in penalty box until they can show profitable growth.
(Analysts’ price target is $500.24)A core tech name. Recurring revenue. If growth doesn't materialize, the market will demand that it cut back. It just means they'll have more cashflow from its high operating margins. Strong balance sheet. Good entry point. Yield is 0.8%.