Microsoft CorpMSFTDON'T BUYOct 24, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
The lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
There are legitimate concerns of the AI product being lesser than others, as well as the software component. Its collaboration with Open AI has caused it to fall behind others in the race. However it recently re-negotiated a deal with Open AI to explore other avenues which should open things up for Microsoft. The Azure cloud offering is growing at 40% plus, and its software offerings eg Windows, etc. are a perfect launching pad for an AI application. It is 30 % off its highs. Buy 68 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)Tech companies like this got too expensive and got ahead of themselves. MSFT is still growing in double digits. AI won't go away, so the companies that invested will benefit for many years. MSFT is depressed now because it's not as an exciting story as Micron or Nvidia. The PE of 22x is attractive. Software isn't going anywhere.
He has no software exposure (13% tech across the firm, a significant underweight). Have to pick your spots. Agentic AI puts software companies in a tricky position. Investing heavily in AI infrastructure, so less $$ to return to shareholders. Trading better than only 30% of S&P stocks in last 52 weeks.
On the other hand, sees semiconductors in a similar vein to copper and a call on the economy, and where pricing power gives inflation protection.
Reports on Thursday. Buy or wait? This is the one stock that has helped the market, in addition to FAANG, it’s just that no one knows how to spell FMAANG by adding M into the acronym. It has been a home run since February 2014 when management changed. It’s been trading at around 20X earnings every quarter for a long time. He would stay away for the time being and have a better entry point. The growth story for them has been their Cloud services division, where they are going up against Amazon Web services. When facing a competitor like that, who has no problem not earning money, that becomes a big dogfight. Wouldn’t be comfortable buying at these prices.