Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKDec 13, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
The lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
There are legitimate concerns of the AI product being lesser than others, as well as the software component. Its collaboration with Open AI has caused it to fall behind others in the race. However it recently re-negotiated a deal with Open AI to explore other avenues which should open things up for Microsoft. The Azure cloud offering is growing at 40% plus, and its software offerings eg Windows, etc. are a perfect launching pad for an AI application. It is 30 % off its highs. Buy 68 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)Tech companies like this got too expensive and got ahead of themselves. MSFT is still growing in double digits. AI won't go away, so the companies that invested will benefit for many years. MSFT is depressed now because it's not as an exciting story as Micron or Nvidia. The PE of 22x is attractive. Software isn't going anywhere.
He has no software exposure (13% tech across the firm, a significant underweight). Have to pick your spots. Agentic AI puts software companies in a tricky position. Investing heavily in AI infrastructure, so less $$ to return to shareholders. Trading better than only 30% of S&P stocks in last 52 weeks.
On the other hand, sees semiconductors in a similar vein to copper and a call on the economy, and where pricing power gives inflation protection.
The tech group led the market all year long. Cloud-based computing is growing like wild fire. In the most recent quarter, they grew their Azure business by 120%. Software, as a service, is very attractive because it is very predictable. In the 1st few days and couple of weeks after the election, people sold some of the leading technology companies in order to buy stuff they didn’t own. Now there is new money coming into the market, and these companies have not changed their business models. This company is not expensive. It has recently taken out the highs from 2000. Their last purchase of LinkedIn gives them a great opportunity to monetize that business. Dividend yield of 2.47%. (Analysts’ price target is $63.75.)