Stockchase Opinions

David Driscoll Morgan Stanley MS-N COMMENT Jan 11, 2018

If you look at all the US banks' total returns, they are almost identical. The reason is because of ETF's. It’s pretty much a 26%-27% total return over the last 12 months for almost all the big money centred banks. Interest rates are rising, so it’s a good place to be. For access to American banking, he owns Toronto Dominion (TD-T) instead. On the dividend per share being paid out by US banks, they are just getting started. This bank would be deemed more as a money centred bank. A little slower growth than some of the others, because they have more of a global positioning with greater capital markets exposure.

$54.200

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

The question was on his preference of this group of wealth management companies. He owns all three for different reasons. The possible lack of regulation under the new administration has already boosted them. They are in excellent financial shape and have good dividend growth. It is not an expensive sector.

BUY

This week, they delivered a big revenue and earnings beat. Investment banking revenue rose 25% and equity 51%. Strong expense control as seen in their 69% efficiency ratio and bought back $750 million in shares. The sky is the limit for these guys. 

BUY

He's most excited about banking de-regulation, loosening constraints as a result of the 2008 banking crisis. De-regulating will loosen a lot of capital, so he owns MS in anticipation.

BUY

They announced lay-offs, but no financial advisors. 70% of earnings come from the wealth business. They have a strong balance sheet and pay a 3% dividend yield that's growing. MS is-5% this year. The time to buy.

DON'T BUY

Friday kicks off bank earnings season, a sector that has been crushed, because Wall Street expects a downturn in the economy. They recently closed a deal at a good price, but there's no other good news. Capital markets have only gotten worse due to tariffs.

TOP PICK

Money centre + wealth management (about 50% of total revenue). Accumulated companies over the years. New CEO comes from within. Traded off to a compelling valuation versus its history. Well positioned once we come out of all this. Yield is 3.72%.

(Analysts’ price target is $130.90)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 16/24, Up 40%)

A generation ago, their business was fixed income and capital markets. Now, 50% of business is wealth management. They have a toe in the water in capital markets, which should grow in the second half of this year with more M&A activity.

BUY

Had healthy top and bottom line beats. All three divisions beat. Wealth management is seeing huge inflows. 

BUY

The capital markets banks are all performing really well. That tells you something about the rest of the market; if investors are focusing on these banks, then they must have a view that lots of deals will be done and that capital markets provide a good opportunity. This name is more investment management than trading, but still very attractive.

BUY

He bought it. The debt-to-equity ratio is a little better than GS, so he prefers MS. Owns both.