Stock price when the opinion was issued
MG has a decent enough balance sheet, with net debt about 1.6X annual cash flow.
Dividend payout is in the 25% range and we would not expect a cut.
Three years is a long forecast time, but analysts show close to $10 in EPS in 2026, so if that is realized the stock is very cheap and is likely to do better.
But it has had a series of bad announcements, and we would expect the company to be in the penalty box for at least several months now.
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Growth has slowed down and profitability has been sliding since 2018. Its valuation of 7X forward earnings reflects a lot of these concerns, and it trades just above book value at 1.1X price to book. Cash flows are mostly used to pay its dividend, and it has been a net issuer of debt over the past two years. We do not like its recent momentum, following a string of weak earnings results. We would prefer to wait until next earnings to assess if a floor can be put into its price, but for now the cheap valuation could become even cheaper if results continue to disappoint.
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Under valued given current stock price. Expecting stronger sales ahead. Auto part sector not favorable right now, but is a good time to buy. Car business presents many customers with aging auto fleet in North America (will require replacement parts). Expecting earnings to rise, especially with EV opportunity.